Market Comments January 8, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 01/07/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7463 12.5956 10.4853 12.3632 14.3592 $  Change - 0.0008 0.0340 -0.3174 -0.4115 -0.2050 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.27% -2.94% -3.22% -1.41% % Chg wk - +0.03% +0.63% -2.63% -1.06% -1.30% % Chg mon - +0.04% +0.12% +0.49% +1.28% +0.73% % Chg 2009 - +0.04% +0.12% +0.49% +1.28% +0.73%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 12.5675 12.6930 12.9186 13.8674 12.8084 $  Change - -0.2638 -0.2335 -0.1958 -0.1008 -0.0642 % Chg day - -2.06% -1.81% -1.49% -0.72% -0.50% % Chg wk - -1.49% -1.31% -1.10% -0.52% -0.35% % Chg mon - +0.63% +0.55% +0.47% +0.25% +0.19% % Chg 2009 - +0.63% +0.55% +0.47% +0.25% +0.19%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Pullback Stocks finally succumbed to their extreme overbought condition by dropping about 3% yesterday.  Tomorrow we get the December jobs report.  We know it will be bad, but how will the market react? Last month, the market actually rallied after the November jobs report and the loss of 500K jobs was announced.  Has all the bad news been priced in?  Estimates for the December report are for a similar loss just under 500K, and remember, there will likely be a revision to the November numbers and that may be just as important as December's number. After three consecutive days above the descending trend line and the 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 moved back down below with yesterday's sell off.  I was looking for two or three closes above to show us a sign of strength, but being that the rally was on such light volume holiday trading, I was not overly convinced yet.  So the test continues.                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The overbought / oversold indicator is finally pulling back from that extreme reading over 1100.  It was due, but we still don't know what kind of weakness will accompany this move from the overbought levels.  Will it be a healthy pullback, or another selloff?                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I think that is the question every prognosticator in the world is asking now.  If you watch CNBC or Bloomberg Television, I'd say the "experts" are about evenly split on this.  Not much help.  For every person who backs your case (bull or bear), there's another to tell you why you are wrong.  That's what makes for an interesting market.  Of course "the herd" (dumb money) is still quite bullish, but it depends where you get your info. Bonds have come off of their recent parabolic move higher.  Not too much of a surprise.  The surprise to me was the strength of the that rally.  Is this going to be another oil market where it goes straight up, then straight down?  Maybe, but the stock market will have to rally pretty strongly for that to happen, in my opinion.                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  See you back here tomorrow.