Market Comments January 15, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 01/14/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7515 12.6661 9.7467 11.4116 13.0201 $  Change - 0.0008 0.0171 -0.3364 -0.4820 -0.4915 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.14% -3.34% -4.05% -3.64% % Chg wk - +0.03% +0.31% -5.34% -5.85% -7.59% % Chg mon - +0.09% +0.68% -6.59% -6.52% -8.66% % Chg 2009 - +0.09% +0.68% -6.59% -6.52% -8.66%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.7678 11.9850 12.3152 13.5577 12.6151 $  Change - -0.3515 -0.3122 -0.2655 -0.1386 -0.0878 % Chg day - -2.90% -2.54% -2.11% -1.01% -0.69% % Chg wk - -4.95% -4.33% -3.63% -1.73% -1.17% % Chg mon - -5.78% -5.05% -4.23% -1.99% -1.32% % Chg 2009 - -5.78% -5.05% -4.23% -1.99% -1.32%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

History doesn't repeat, but it sometimes rhymes Stocks were hit hard again on Wednesday as the C, S and I-funds dropped 3.3%, 4.1% and 3.6% respectively.  Bonds (F-fund) were the winner again as investors looked for safety.  Technically, the S&P 500 chart has broken down and things need to improve post-haste or it will be a quick trip down to the 740 lows made in November.                        Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk This is an options expiration week, so it supposed to have a positive bias, but unfortunately this January is looking like a repeat of January 2008. We have talked many times about the power of the bear market rallies, and that we were likely to see 20% to 30% rebounds, but like the bear market of 2000-2002, those rallies eventually flip back down.                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I think the best we may hope for is a successful test of the November low, which would make a double bottom.  You can see above that there were two successful tests of the low made in October 2002, before the market started to recover out of the bear market. The NYSE is now oversold, but nothing too extreme.                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk As I mentioned yesterday, the stronger seasonality kicks in two days before the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but I wouldn't use seasonality as a primary indicator.                               Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com You can check out Wednesday's commentary for a review of the pre/post Inauguration historical results - just in case you are looking for a play. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!