Market Comments December 4, 2008 TSP Fund share prices as of: 12/03/08 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7136 12.2147 10.0320 11.1811 12.9203 $  Change - 0.0010 0.0061 0.2572 0.2797 0.0926 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.05% +2.63% +2.57% +0.72% % Chg wk - +0.03% +0.72% -2.83% -4.12% -2.42% % Chg mon - +0.03% +0.72% -2.83% -4.12% -2.42% % Chg 2008 - +3.53% +2.39% -39.42% -43.50% -47.82%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.7763 11.9867 12.3089 13.5088 12.5755 $  Change - 0.1960 0.1766 0.1511 0.0866 0.0548 % Chg day - +1.69% +1.50% +1.24% +0.65% +0.44% % Chg wk - -2.29% -1.96% -1.58% -0.72% -0.44% % Chg mon - -2.29% -1.96% -1.58% -0.72% -0.44% % Chg 2008 - -35.44% -31.15% -26.07% -12.62% -6.64%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

Higher high, or lower low? Stock were all over the place yesterday but when it counted, the bulls took charge and the major averages closed strongly to the upside to the tune of about 2.5%.  There seemed to be some late money going to work on the bullish side the last two days, which is a good sign - but here come the tests. The swings remain violent and unless you are a day trader (trading several times a day) you are probably sitting by watching this like a deer caught in the headlights, because we don't know which way to turn. The S&P 500 rallied up to the resistance area so the upside will be a little tougher from here.  If 896 can be penetrated on the upside, we could have ourselves the start of a nice Santa Claus rally.  However, if the S&P decides to go below 815 instead, the recent low, then we're more likely to see a test of the prior lows and then the support lines below.                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The overbought/oversold indicator is slightly overbought.  The "dumb money" put / call ratios (CBOE and Equity) are starting to get near the declining overly bullish resistance area (bearish for stocks), and the smart money put / call ratio (OEX) is getting a little more bearish (slightly bearish for stocks).                                Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com We just had a 270 point gain in the Dow, followed by a 170 point gain, yet it is still down 230 points for the week.  The sell offs can be brutal and with the indices peeking back toward being  overbought, it is prudent to remain cautious.  Today is the 4th trading day of the month (see chart below) and after the first week in December, seasonality turns a bit negative for a couple of weeks.  This thing can go either way so be careful out there.  That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  We'll see you here tomorrow....