There it was
Santa finally showed up as the stock funds were up 2.5% to 3.0%
across the board. Volume was light, but 3% is still 3%.
The question is, can the market hold onto these gains in the new
year?
The S&P 500 closed above the 20-day moving average but still
faces some stiff overhead resistance just above 900. Volume
will be light again and who knows what kind of end of year window
dressing action we will get from money managers after a year with
the major indices down near 40%?
Chart provided
courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com,
analysis by TSP Talk
There are still a lot of folks who I
respect looking for a "real" bear market rally. Art Cashen,
the director of the
NYSE
floor operations for UBS, and
frequent commentator on
CNBC, is one of them as he said yesterday that he
can see a move up toward 1100 on the S&P 500
in the coming months. His four decades of experience are
difficult to argue with, but I am worried that the 24% rally we
already had from from bottom to recent top may be it, and I don't
know how much more we can get. We saw similar sized rallies
during the 2000-2002 bear market, before things went south again.
That said, if we see the S&P 500 move above the 50-day moving
average and the declining trend line shown above, I may be more
willing to get on board.
The NYSE is back near the +500 overbought level so the end-of-year /
beginning-of-year seasonal strength will have to contend with that.
Chart provided
courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com,
analysis by TSP Talk
I sure blew it.
I wanted to try to catch a rally before the month was over, but I
decided to play it safe rather than be sorry. Trader Fred's
Aggressive ETF System (not the TSP system) even gave us a buy signal
on Monday - for Tuesday, and caught the rally, but I didn't take it.
I don't recommend mixing the system signals, but I was actually
looking for a buying opportunity like that. I just didn't act
on it.
Just so the non-subscribers know, that Aggressive ETF System from
Trader Fred does not consider transfer limits, as his TSP System
does.
That's is kind of a microcosm of my year. All of our premium
services TSP allocations did relatively well compared to the market,
and to my return. I may have to think about a New Year's
resolution to follow our systems more closely, rather than thinking
I know better. I'll post the final 2008 returns of the
services after the holiday to show you why I am not happy with my
decisions.
Because I assume that I am not the only one who had a rough 2008 and
lost more than they should have, we are going to offer a one week
only, holiday special 20% discount on the annual subscription prices
to help out our 2009 returns.
So if you have been been considering subscribing to one of our
premium services, now is the time to act.
The sale prices end after January 7.
Click here to get started
and enjoy immediate access.
By the way, if you already subscribe to a month to month service and
would like to convert to the annual to take advantage of the
discount, send me an
Email
and I will help with the conversion.
If you are already an annual subscriber and would like to take add a
year to your service with the discounted price, also
Email
me so we can handle that for you.
That's all for today. Thanks for reading! Have a great
Holiday. Happy New Year and we will see you on Friday morning.
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