Market Comments December 16, 2008 TSP Fund share prices as of: 12/15/08 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7251 12.3755 10.0147 11.2174 13.6809 $  Change - 0.0029 0.0205 -0.1286 -0.3032 0.0571 % Chg day - +0.02% +0.17% -1.27% -2.63% +0.42% % Chg wk - +0.02% +0.17% -1.27% -2.63% +0.42% % Chg mon - +0.12% +2.04% -2.99% -3.81% +3.32% % Chg 2008 - +3.62% +3.73% -39.52% -43.32% -44.75%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.9599 12.1507 12.4579 13.6002 12.6343 $  Change - -0.1031 -0.0915 -0.0739 -0.0386 -0.0232 % Chg day - -0.85% -0.75% -0.59% -0.28% -0.18% % Chg wk - -0.85% -0.75% -0.59% -0.28% -0.18% % Chg mon - -0.76%% -0.62% -0.39% -0.05% +0.02% % Chg 2008 - -34.43% -30.21% -25.18% -12.03% -6.20%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer  friendly

FOMC Today After opening to the upside, stocks slowly moved downward all day yesterday, but a late 10-minute surge that started at about 3:30 ET, took the from 160-points down, back toward the break-even area before closing down "just" 65.      Down 65-points almost feels like a break-even day lately.  We have not seen too many double digit moves in the Dow, and now we've had two in a row.  Stability or apprehension? The S&P 500 remained within the rising wedge pattern that we talked about yesterday, and remained below resistance.  As we anticipated, volume was very light in front of today's FOMC policy statement announcement.  I don't know if a rate cut is already priced into the market, but I also don't know if it really matters any more.  With the Fed Funds rate currently at 1%, will a move down to a 0.50% rate much of a difference?                                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com I don't particularly like the looks of the S&P chart, but the December seasonality chart - which I don't use as a primary indicator but it is something to consider - begins its positive holiday stretch on or about the 15th trading day of December, which is Friday the 19th this year.                               Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com Today is the 12th trading day of the month and it has a nice little historical positive spike in it, but the next two days (trading days 13 and 14), while showing a positive return, have actually been down more often than up during the 57 year period between 1950 and 2006.     I expect another light volume trading day, right up until the Fed announcement at 2:15 PM ET.  Then we know how it goes.  Things will move up and down wildly before settling on a direction.  Then tomorrow or the next day, any big move will likely be "corrected".  It's tough to trade, particularly in our TSP accounts. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!