Waiting on some oversold readings.
The market took a little nap on Friday but no real damage was done unless you were in the I fund. The S&P 500 was basically flat and small caps were off slightly. The dollar rallied strongly Friday giving the I fund that trouble.
The jobs report came in weaker than expected and while that is a "rear view mirror" sign that the economy may be slowing, it does add another reason why the Fed should consider easing on those interest rate hikes.
I'm still in the G fund, not out of want, but because I missed the boat on this recent rally and I am trying to be patient waiting for a better buying opportunity. I won't lay that 1994 chart on you again today (maybe sometime this week) but if we are going to mirror the action of that year at all, we would be in for continued volatility. I am counting on that to give me the opportunity I am seeking.
The market is leaning on the overbought side and I will be watching closely for the indicators to change that. The market doesn't necessarily have to fall for the reading to come down from overbought levels. Just simply chopping around may do that. We may never get to oversold levels if the market is really in a strong bull mode and that would make it tough to get that buying opportunity. I will be watching closely.
I showed you the overbought McClellan Oscillator the other day. Today I will show you the 10-day moving average of the ARMS Index, another favorite indicator of mine:
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Ideally I like to see this indicator hit 1.30 for an intermediate term buy signal. That's one reason I have missed this rally. It didn't quite make it there in October. Right now the reading of .90 is closer to a sell signal. The market doesn't always head straight down when this level is reached but any more upside action does become more labored. The "easy" money was likely made already.
As I mentioned earlier, the I fund had some trouble Friday and much of that was because of the strength in the dollar. The dollar made a new 52-week high Friday and nearly a two year high. But to put things into perspective, it is well off the highs we saw a few years ago. Here is a seven year chart.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
If you look even deeper however, you will see that the dollar is actually in an historically "normal" range now (80 to 100). Here is 20+ year chart...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
I hope you get a chance to check out today's Market Item. Friday's item was a real neat painting but did not sell. I'm thinking it must be the picture quality because it really is a nice piece. I'll leave up another day just in case you missed it. Thanks for your support!
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.
The market took a little nap on Friday but no real damage was done unless you were in the I fund. The S&P 500 was basically flat and small caps were off slightly. The dollar rallied strongly Friday giving the I fund that trouble.
The jobs report came in weaker than expected and while that is a "rear view mirror" sign that the economy may be slowing, it does add another reason why the Fed should consider easing on those interest rate hikes.
I'm still in the G fund, not out of want, but because I missed the boat on this recent rally and I am trying to be patient waiting for a better buying opportunity. I won't lay that 1994 chart on you again today (maybe sometime this week) but if we are going to mirror the action of that year at all, we would be in for continued volatility. I am counting on that to give me the opportunity I am seeking.
The market is leaning on the overbought side and I will be watching closely for the indicators to change that. The market doesn't necessarily have to fall for the reading to come down from overbought levels. Just simply chopping around may do that. We may never get to oversold levels if the market is really in a strong bull mode and that would make it tough to get that buying opportunity. I will be watching closely.
I showed you the overbought McClellan Oscillator the other day. Today I will show you the 10-day moving average of the ARMS Index, another favorite indicator of mine:
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Ideally I like to see this indicator hit 1.30 for an intermediate term buy signal. That's one reason I have missed this rally. It didn't quite make it there in October. Right now the reading of .90 is closer to a sell signal. The market doesn't always head straight down when this level is reached but any more upside action does become more labored. The "easy" money was likely made already.
As I mentioned earlier, the I fund had some trouble Friday and much of that was because of the strength in the dollar. The dollar made a new 52-week high Friday and nearly a two year high. But to put things into perspective, it is well off the highs we saw a few years ago. Here is a seven year chart.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
If you look even deeper however, you will see that the dollar is actually in an historically "normal" range now (80 to 100). Here is 20+ year chart...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
I hope you get a chance to check out today's Market Item. Friday's item was a real neat painting but did not sell. I'm thinking it must be the picture quality because it really is a nice piece. I'll leave up another day just in case you missed it. Thanks for your support!
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.
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