Market Comments November 4, 2008 TSP Fund share prices as of: 11/03/08 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.6749 11.7874 11.0949 13.1284 14.1772 $  Change - 0.0038 0.0466 -0.0274 0.0063 -0.0179 % Chg day - +0.03% +0.40% -0.25% +0.05% -0.13% % Chg wk - +0.03% +0.40% -0.25% +0.05% -0.13% % Chg mon - +0.03% +0.40% -0.25% +0.05% -0.13% % Chg 2008 - +3.22% -1.20% -33.00% -33.66% -42.74%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 12.7908 12.8558 13.0084 13.8249 12.7398 $  Change - -0.0104 -0.0089 -0.0072 -0.0009 0.0015 % Chg day - -0.08% -0.07% -0.06% -0.01% +0.01% % Chg wk - -0.08% -0.07% -0.06% -0.01% +0.01% % Chg mon - -0.08% -0.07% -0.06% -0.01% +0.01% % Chg 2008 - -29.88% -26.16% -21.87% -10.58% -5.42%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

The bottom, or not the bottom?  That isn't the question Stocks pulled back modestly yesterday before today's election, although the small caps did manage a small gain.  I'm not sure exactly how investors will react to the election results, but most of them will sure be glad when it's over. The S&P 500 continues to hang near the 20-day moving average, and while a lot of folks are talking about whether or not we have seen the bottom, I am more interested in the next 10% move.  October and our TSP limits beat me pretty good last month and I'd like to be on the right side for the next 10%. While we could be in a trading range, as we have talked about before, that range is from 840 to 1000.  From top to bottom / bottom to top, that is about a 20% swing in each direction.  Plus the 50-day moving average (currently 1066) is 10% above the S&P 500 right now.  So bottom or not, we could see 10% to 20% moves before we have any idea if the October low will be THE bottom.                              Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Here is a weekly chart of the S&P 500.  You can see more easily, that the last few weeks have seen wide moves, but if we are indeed a trading range, the S&P 500 may have a lot more room on the downside than up.  There is very little support above the 840 level, but the overhead resistance could make it tough for the S&P to get above 1000 or the 1060 area.                              Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The recent rally has taken the market into overbought territory and sentimentrader.com has a series of several short-term indicators that are showing those signs of being overbought, and of excessive optimism.  These levels have marked short-term market peaks in the past.                                      Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com I wanted to revisit the bond (F-fund) situation.  Last Monday I mentioned that the reversal and overhead resistance in the 30-year bond was enough to take the F-fund off of my consideration list.  Since then the bonds have dropped steeply and is now back near support.  This could be considered a triple bottom, which is not always a good sign.  I suspect bonds will be lower next week.                                Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com Don't forget to vote today! That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  See you tomorrow!