Very neutral.
The short term indicators are quite neutral at the moment. History tells us that nine of the last twelve times the S&P 500 closed in negative territory on the day of a Federal Reserve rate decision, it was positive the next day. September's meeting was one of the exceptions.
I am the first to admit that my instincts are not good. I don't have a good "feel" for the market. I just look at indicators and as I said, they are mostly neutral at the moment. RevShark, on the other hand, is one of the few market prognosticators that I have found to have a very good "feel". He is still quite bullish for the short term. That makes my thinking that we are seeing a little resistance here and may have to endure a little more weakness, questionable. That is my instinct talking, not my indicators so take it for what it's worth...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
That last 1994 sell off a few days after the Fed's November rate hike (see yesterday's comments below for the chart) seems like a possibility to me but I do realize it could be setting up a major longer term buying opportunity. So the question we'd want to ask ourselves is how important is it to try to miss one last potential push down when we appear to be on the cusp of a long term bull market? That's where your comfort zone comes is. The answer will not be the same for all of us.
If the market picture has improved we may not have to get to oversold conditions before we see another rally. Strong markets can rally from neutral readings. That makes it difficult to time because, do you buy weakness, or is weakness a sign that the market is not that strong yet? The best way to play it may be to move in slowly. That is buy into the stock funds 25% or 30% at a time over the next several days or weeks, regardless of the market direction.
I'm not sure I'll do that but I am likely to be getting some or all of my money back into the stock funds in the coming days. I will try to exercise patience as I have a history a being too early. We haven't had a trend change yet and assuming everything is fine right now could be another premature assumption. Since I would rather buy a strong sell off than a trend change, I am more likely to be early than late.
The I fund could be one way to sneak into stocks. The smart money (large commercial traders) have the largest short position (betting the dollar will fall) in the dollar now than ever before. At the same time trend following speculators have their largest net long position ever (betting on a dollar rally). This could be bad news for the dollar and good news for the I fund.
I'm not too sure about bonds right now. They did not bounce when it appeared they should. We may see a short term bounce now, typical action after a Fed meeting, but I'd rather take my chance in stocks than bonds. That said, the bearish sentiment is quite high on bonds which does tend to lead to a rally. Tough call.
Today's Market Item is a great painting by a very talented artist.
I was surprised to see that yesterday's item did not sell. Those pepper mills are quite popular in our gallery and this was one of the lower priced available. Must be a Utah thing.
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.
The short term indicators are quite neutral at the moment. History tells us that nine of the last twelve times the S&P 500 closed in negative territory on the day of a Federal Reserve rate decision, it was positive the next day. September's meeting was one of the exceptions.
I am the first to admit that my instincts are not good. I don't have a good "feel" for the market. I just look at indicators and as I said, they are mostly neutral at the moment. RevShark, on the other hand, is one of the few market prognosticators that I have found to have a very good "feel". He is still quite bullish for the short term. That makes my thinking that we are seeing a little resistance here and may have to endure a little more weakness, questionable. That is my instinct talking, not my indicators so take it for what it's worth...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
That last 1994 sell off a few days after the Fed's November rate hike (see yesterday's comments below for the chart) seems like a possibility to me but I do realize it could be setting up a major longer term buying opportunity. So the question we'd want to ask ourselves is how important is it to try to miss one last potential push down when we appear to be on the cusp of a long term bull market? That's where your comfort zone comes is. The answer will not be the same for all of us.
If the market picture has improved we may not have to get to oversold conditions before we see another rally. Strong markets can rally from neutral readings. That makes it difficult to time because, do you buy weakness, or is weakness a sign that the market is not that strong yet? The best way to play it may be to move in slowly. That is buy into the stock funds 25% or 30% at a time over the next several days or weeks, regardless of the market direction.
I'm not sure I'll do that but I am likely to be getting some or all of my money back into the stock funds in the coming days. I will try to exercise patience as I have a history a being too early. We haven't had a trend change yet and assuming everything is fine right now could be another premature assumption. Since I would rather buy a strong sell off than a trend change, I am more likely to be early than late.
The I fund could be one way to sneak into stocks. The smart money (large commercial traders) have the largest short position (betting the dollar will fall) in the dollar now than ever before. At the same time trend following speculators have their largest net long position ever (betting on a dollar rally). This could be bad news for the dollar and good news for the I fund.
I'm not too sure about bonds right now. They did not bounce when it appeared they should. We may see a short term bounce now, typical action after a Fed meeting, but I'd rather take my chance in stocks than bonds. That said, the bearish sentiment is quite high on bonds which does tend to lead to a rally. Tough call.
Today's Market Item is a great painting by a very talented artist.
I was surprised to see that yesterday's item did not sell. Those pepper mills are quite popular in our gallery and this was one of the lower priced available. Must be a Utah thing.
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.
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