Market Comments November 25, 2008 TSP Fund share prices as of: 11/24/08 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7024 11.9570 9.8053 10.6717 13.0181 $  Change - 0.0039 -0.0201 0.5984 0.7043 0.8334 % Chg day - +0.03% -0.17% +6.50% +7.07% +6.84% % Chg wk - +0.03% -0.17% +6.50% +7.07% +6.84% % Chg mon - +0.25% +1.84% -11.84% -18.67% -8.29% % Chg 2008 - +3.44% +0.23% -40.79% -46.08% -47.42%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.5554 11.7823 12.1324 13.3909 12.4916 $  Change - 0.6002 0.5405 0.4695 0.2686 0.1660 % Chg day - +5.48% +4.81% +4.03% +2.05% +1.35% % Chg wk - +5.48% +4.81% +4.03% +2.05% +1.35% % Chg mon - -9.73% -8.41% -6.79% -3.15% -1.94% % Chg 2008 - -36.65% -32.32% -27.13% -13.38% -7.26%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Bear market rally Stocks followed through on Friday's big reversal day by tacking on 6% to 7% gains across the board.  The swings continue to be wild and the light volume trading coming later this holiday week could keep volatility on the high side. The trouble for stocks now is that they have not had much success during this bear market after two or three big up days.  The good news for stocks is that Wednesday and Thursday of this week are historically quite positive. The S&P 500 closed at 851 running right passed that 840 level that we had looked to as a resistance level.  The 20-day moving average is next at 881, but it should be closer to 879 by the end of today as the average has been falling fast.                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The NYSE is still oversold, but well off of the extreme reading we saw over the last couple of days. Holiday trading can be quite frustrating as the market does not seem to behave as you'd might expect.  There is a general positive bias surrounding holiday trading, and as we've talked about, Thanksgiving is no exception. This market is not out of the woods yet by any means, but the powers that be are going to milk this Citi bailout for as much upside as they can get, probably before the selling kicks in again.  I don't think there is any doubt that this market will have to face more problems in the future, but if you ran a large money management firm and you wanted/needed to sell some of your questionable stock holdings, wouldn't you want to prop them up to look more attractive before you sold?  Yesterday I said I was looking for more upside, and we sure got that, but I also said I would be a seller if we saw a 10% or 15% rally.  With the S&P 500 closing at 851, we have now had a 15% bounce off of Friday's low.  The caveat in this case is that it is a holiday week and there is a that positive bias.  Other than that, I'm not sure I'd be hanging on to the stock funds for much longer - unless and until we see a great improvement in the charts.  But that won't happen overnight. That's all for today. Thanks for reading, and we'll see you tomorrow!