Thrift Savings Plan Talk

The Fed should make things interesting.

I am getting that sick feeling in my stomach again. That feeling you get when the market is taking off without you. It is similar to, but not as bad as, the sick feeling you get when you are in stocks and they are dropping daily.

Days like Friday and Monday get you thinking that the market will never come down. Just like when the market is falling and you think, "What could ever start a rally as bad as things are now?" Well, we know the market doesn't go straight down, nor does it go straight up. That is unless you remember last year at this time (1st point "A").

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

I don't know if we are in for that type of action (both point A's) or if we are being set up for the failing rallies marked "B". The difference last year was that the psychology and monetary legs of the market were in better shape than they are this year. The market may need a bit more pruning to get us to that level this year, so I don't believe we will see a move straight up from here.

As good as the day was, something spooked the market just before the close yesterday as the Dow lost about 50 points in the last half hour.

Word may have gotten out that Dell was about to lower their 3rd quarter earnings forecasts. They did so after the close and the futures really started to drop. Combine that with the Fed interest rate announcement due out today and it may have been enough for some to take some recent profits.

There shouldn't be too many surprises from the Fed tomorrow. They are likely to raise a twelfth straight time but of course their statements will be heavily scrutinized for hints about the future of interest rates. I still remember that chart of 1994, the year we seem to be mirroring, when the Fed raised rates in November. We saw one last push down after the announcement, just prior to the big take off.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

Oil closed below $60 for the first time since July and the dollar was higher.

I am really hoping for, and counting on, a nice sell off like that in the coming days or weeks. I want to start putting money back into the stock funds after my little playing around with the short term back fired.

Today's Market Item should appeal to those who like art, like to cook... or like to eat. Anyone out there like to eat?

That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Thanks for reading.