Market Comments November 14, 2008 TSP Fund share prices as of: 11/13/08 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.6880 11.9251 10.4798 11.9770 13.7687 $  Change - 0.0013 -0.0842 0.6767 0.8178 0.8941 % Chg day - +0.01% -0.70% +6.90% +7.33% +6.94% % Chg wk - +0.06% +0.02% -2.09% -3.77% -3.09% % Chg mon - +0.13% +1.57% -5.78% -8.73% -3.00% % Chg 2008 - +3.32% -0.04% -36.72% -39.48% -44.39%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 12.2509 12.3895 12.6325 13.6445 12.6384 $  Change - 0.6562 0.5861 0.5036 0.2795 0.1697 % Chg day - +5.66% +4.97% +4.15% +2.09% +1.36% % Chg wk - -2.14% -1.82% -1.46% -0.65% -0.39% % Chg mon - -4.30% -3.69% -2.94% -1.31% -0.78% % Chg 2008 - -32.83% -28.84% -24.13% -11.74% -6.17%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Oversold rally Stocks put in a huge reversal yesterday on high volume.  The Dow had been down over 300-points before the market did an about-face, rallying over 11% in the final 3 hours of trading.     We kind of sniffed this one out as the S&P 500 was down 18% from the recent high, the overbought/oversold indicator was nearing that -1000 level, and there was that tendency for the market to reverse after Intel gives a surprise guidance report - as we talked about yesterday - but it is so difficult to trade these swings with our 12 noon ET deadline, and the two transfer per month limit. The S&P 500 dip break below that October low, but closed back up into the trading range.  I had mentioned that "brave investors" would be looking to buy the bottom of the trading range, and that's what you had to be - brave.  But once the buying started, there was a mad rush of short covering and it fed upon itself.                                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The volume was decent as it pushed over 6 billion shares giving some credibility to the rally.  The 1000-1005 area should act as resistance, and if it can get past that point, the 50-day moving average  (currently 1026 and dropping fast) should stop the rally, but with the S&P at 911 now, there is some room to run. I would expect some follow-through today and maybe into next week as no one wants to miss a rally off of "the bottom", but I am not anticipating that this is anything more than a short-term bounce - although it could be a big bounce.  I am sorry that I was not able to take advantage, but it came too quickly and if we gap open higher today I may just forget trying to play it.  The way the market is moving these days, we could see 1000 by early next week and it could be over that quickly.  So the question is, do you want to try to play?  With our limited transfers it gets tough to pick and choose our spots to play rallies in this bear market.  So, yesterday was a nice reversal, but I am not getting on the bullish bandwagon as these bear market rallies don't usually last more than a few days at most.  This rally could have some legs but unfortunately we may have missed the boat already.  The risk remains on the downside so be careful if you decide to get long (buy the stock funds).  If you do decide to buy, don't get married to the position.  Think of it as an adventurous fling. Here's an interesting stat:  Next week is options expiration week.  As bad as 2008 has been, 8 of this year's 10 option expiration weeks have ended positive.  Only January and June were negative.  Only 3 of this year's 10 post-options expiration weeks have closed in positive territory - And 2 of those 3 came during holiday weeks (January and February).  Thanksgiving will fall in November's a post-options expiration week. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend! That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend!