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| Today's Commentary |
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Uneventful Stocks opened lower yesterday, but quickly found support and regained the early losses. The rest of the day was rather uneventful as the Dow gained 5-points and the S&P 500 was exactly flat: +0.00.  For the TSP, the C-fund was flat, the S-fund slipped 0.02%, and the I-fund fell 1.05% as the dollar is showing signs of life. The F-fund (bonds) lost 0.26%. The S&P 500 closed flat after opening near the day's low and near the bottom of the ascending trend line. All in all, not a bad day.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk The dollar seems to be trying to find a bottom and has actually had a PMO buy signal recently - similar to the one it had in early August. When the dollar rallies, stocks have a tendency to struggle more, and if you recall, the TSP funds had a bad month in August.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk We'll have to see if this bottoming formation continues. Even a move to the top of its recent trading channel could pose trouble for the market. But in order for it to move to the top of the range, it does have to negotiate its way above the 20-day and 50-day EMA's first. That may be a challenge. Today is the 19th trading day in October and if you look at the seasonality charts below you can see that the last couple of days in October are quite strong historically, with some continuing strength in early November. And November, as a whole, has a lot of green in it, particularly as we get closer to Thanksgiving week. Other than that, we may have to wait until next week for any excitement as the election and FOMC are on the big events on the schedule. Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow. Tom Crowley |
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