Market Comments

September 24, 2009


 
Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook)                           
Fed shakes things up

Stocks floundered most of the day yesterday, but after the Fed's policy statement was announced, the fireworks began.  After the smoke cleared, the Dow lost 81-points, and the TSP's C, S, and I stock funds dropped 1.0%, 1.3%, and 0.6% respectively.  Bonds were up 0.2%.

There were no real surprises in yesterday's FOMC meeting announcement from the Fed, but that didn't stop stocks from jumping up and down - in that order.  It didn't take long before the 90-point gain and new 11-month high, turned into an 80-point loss by the close.

    

While the S&P 500 did close back below the rising resistance line, that thought could turn into support if it held for 3 or more days, it is still so close that it is not giving us a definitive answer.


                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

You can see below that the new high followed by a close at the lows of the day, created a negative outside day, which could be indicating that at least a short-term top may be imminent.  I know, I know - you've heard this before.  It is getting tough to take these calls seriously anymore.  But nothing lasts forever and we are due.

                                                     
                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The following chart is considered a smart money indicator.  It is the corporate insiders actions.  I had to truncate it a bit to fit it in here, but off to the right we are just missing the S&P 500 prices and the values for the bullish / bearish readings.  Suffice it to say that a reading up near the red areas are bearish for stocks, and the green areas are bullish for stocks. 



                               Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

The current reading of -1.24 put the indicator in between -1 (bearish for stocks) and -2 (very bearish for stocks).  This smart money can swing wildly during the year and at times their extreme sentiment can be a little early as far as picking tops and bottoms.  Without going too much more into detail, I think the gist of this chart is pretty apparent - corporate insiders are selling.

That's all for today.  
Thanks for reading!   See you back here tomorrow.
 

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