Stocks refuse to fall
Stocks moved up again yesterday, not
letting any pullback take hold of the market. The Dow gained 51
points and the TSP funds were all up, stocks and bonds. The I-fund was
the winner with a 1.4% gain as the dollar made another new low.
Yesterday's strength took me by surprise, although I don't know why it
would surprise me since this has been the story for months now.
But a closer look at the rally shows that volume was quite low, which
could be telling us something, but then again it was also low when the
S&P was down on Monday. Volume is typically lower during post
options week compared to options week, so it could be nothing, but I'm
looking for clues.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A closer look and you can see the drop in volume more clearly, and also
that the MACD actually fell during yesterday's rally. A possible
divergence developing.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I hate to continue to dwell on the action of the dollar, but on Monday it
threw us a little curve by jumping back above the support line that it had
broken below earlier in the month, but that turned out to be a fake out as
the dollar pulled back sharply again once it hit the 20-day moving average,
and yesterday it actually made a new low.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
That is one of the main reasons that the I-fund outperformed yesterday;
gaining 1.4%.
I have been saying that I believed we would get some answers early this week
as to whether the S&P 500 (top chart) was going to stay above the rising
resistance line, which it broke above last week. I opined that within
2 or 3 days it would fall back below the old resistance. So far it has
not. Instead it is keeping us guessing as it is neither staying above
or below that line, but rather it continues to dance on the line.
Perhaps today, day 3, will give us an answer.
That's all for today.
Thanks for reading!
See you back here tomorrow.
|
