Market Comments

 August 27, 2009

 Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook)                           
Flat
Stocks bounced around all day yesterday - a weak open, an early spike, drifting lower - and the indices finally settled the day basically flat.  The I-fund did slightly worse as the dollar rallied 0.5%, and bonds were up 0.1%.

    

I can't even get myself to repeat it.  You can see what the SP 500 has been doing - nothing new.


                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
As I mentioned, the dollar rallied yesterday, but it remains in the longer-term down trend and is nearing resistance.  If the down trend continues, it could mean the I-fund would outperform the C and S funds in the near term.  That doesn't mean that it will be up - but it should outperform the other stock funds.


                  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

 Here is some seasonality data for September and the days surrounding the Labor Day holiday weekend.  If history repeats, Friday September 4th (day -1 below) would be the best day for stocks.  Thing get a little more shaky after the holiday (+1 on after).



The month of September is the worst month of the year historically.

During the 56 years between 1950 and 2005, it was up just 41% of the time.  By far the worst.

   

Returns-wise, it is also no contest.


                                 Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

A little less boring today, but still brief.

That's all for today.  Thanks for reading!  We'll see you tomorrow.
 

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