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| Today's Commentary (Short Term Outlook) |
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Still riding resistance After being up over 100-points in early trading on Tuesday, the Dow settled down the rest of the day before finally closing up 30. All of the TSP funds closed higher on the day, including bonds.  The S&P remains within the rising wedge, clinging to the upper resistance line. The technical indicators are still flashing bullish signs, but the market remains overbought - but that can be a good sign in a bull market.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk When indices remain up despite being overbought, it is a sign of strength. Put / call sentiment hasn't changed much: The dumb money is still quite bullish while the smart money is acting more defensively. According to our seasonality chart below, today is the 18th trading day in August, an historically positive day for some reason, but the next few turn negative on us. August is supposed to be a mediocre month historically, but this year there have been few complaints from the bulls. September gets more dicey, but we'll talk about that in a couple of days. I'm still in a semi-vacation state of mind with the slow moving market. Hopefully we will get some excitement stirred up during the second half of the week to give us some thing to talk about. Until then, I am keeping it short and boring as promised. That's all for today. Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow. |