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| Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook) |
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Dow 5,000 or 25,000? I saw a segment on CNBC yesterday with investor / financial commentator Jim Rogers. Whether you like the guy or not, he's a pretty big name on Wall Street. Jim was saying that while he is bearish on the economy and the U.S. stock market, he is not short any stocks right now - something he has only done one other time in his career. Of course shorting stocks is a bet they will go down. So, he is bearish yet he says it is too dangerous to bet against stocks right now because of all the money being thrown into the system. The only stocks he would own now are commodity related since he believes supplies are down, the dollar is in big trouble, inflation will be out of control, and the bond market should drop sharply. The funny thing was, he said he would not be surprised to see the Dow double or triple from here - or drop nearly 50%. So, he wouldn't buy non-commodity stocks, but he won't short them either. Interesting take. He claims that he is not a trader, but rather looks at the longer term. I just found this interesting that even professionals are also throwing their hands up with uncertainty. The one thing most agree on is that the spending and printing of money is going to come back to bite us. The only question is when, and how far can U.S. stocks rally until that happens? I wish I had the answer myself. I just keep looking at the charts and indicators that tell me to play defense, but the market just keeps moving higher. It appears that our TSP Talk Sentiment Survey is showing some capitulation from the bears. The bulls (52%) to bears (34%) hit 1.53 to 1 this week, the highest reading since December of 2007. This is neutral reading during a bull market, but a strong sell signal during a bear market. Now you just have to determine what type of market we are in. Our criteria of the 50-day moving average being below the 200-day moving average tells us we are still in a bear market. The jobs report today should keep things interesting. The estimates are looking for a loss of 520,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 9.2%.
That's all for today. Thanks for
reading! Have a great weekend!. |