Market Comments June 30, 2009  Current TSP Share Prices

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

Holiday trading After three consecutive Monday's with negative returns, we had ourselves quite a nice start to the final week in June.  The TSP stock funds all closed higher despite the Russell 2000 and Dow Transports closing lower. Perhaps we saw a little end of the quarter window dressing as, from what I understand, many money managers have missed much of the 2nd quarter's rally, and they want to add some of the better performing stocks into their portfolios, for show.  If that is the case, we might see some selling once July rolls around, but as we mentioned yesterday, early July is historically pretty strong, particularly before our Independence Day holiday. In the chart below, -1 represents Thursday the 2nd of July this year, and +1 is Monday the 6th.                                    Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com The S&P rallied nearly 1% yesterday, although it was on the lightest volume of the year.  Some believe that high volume gives more credibility to a move, up or down, so you could say that this rally wasn't really embraced, but it could just be a case of being a holiday shortened week.                   Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk If the S&P can not make a new high during this push higher, we could be seeing a right shoulder forming in a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern.  An H&S pattern is a bearish pattern.  It is too early to call, of course, but it is something to keep an eye on.  This is a busy week for economic data so combined with the potential for light volume holiday trading, we could see some interesting swings this week.  According to Briefing.com, here's some of what's on tap:   Jun 30 Chicago PMI   Jun 30 Consumer Confidence   Jul 01 ADP Employment Change   Jul 01 Construction Spending   Jul 01 ISM Index   Jul 01 Pending Home Sales   Jul 01 Crude Inventories   Jul 01 Auto Sales   Jul 02 Nonfarm Payrolls   Jul 02 Unemployment Rate   Jul 02 Initial Claims   Jul 02 Factory Orders Next week we kick off another earnings season so the fun just keeps on coming. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!