A nice follow through day yesterday.
Back to back strong days this week certainly helps the bulls' case but the choppy market lately could prove a tough test for continued strength as we've had trouble putting more than a few good days in a row together. One down day wouldn't be terrible here but I like when the talk is negative and the market climbs that wall of worry. If can we get this little pattern to continue, the S&P 500 should make another new short term high (above 1180) before retreating. We seem to have put in two higher lows to start another rising support line. So far so good on the 1994 comparison...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
If the 1994 pattern can continue we should have about another four weeks of bullish action before the consolidation hits the downside.
Yesterday I mentioned that it would be nice to see a higher volume follow through day after the recent lower volume rally. I guess I wasn't the only one talking about it because my friend Jason Goepfert at www.sentimentrader.com decided to challenge that thinking...
"So much attention is focused on whether volume is higher or lower on a day the broader market closes higher or lower. Rarely, however, is any data presented about why we should care…usually we just get some vague mumblings about “accumulation” or “distribution” days. The past two days have supposedly seen the worst of all worlds – a decline on Friday with higher volume than the day before, then a rise today [Monday] with lower volume. But what has that actually meant? Since 1997, after such one-two punches the S&P has actually out-performed a random day from 1 to 60 days later. This is why I place little to no weight on market-wide volume figures."
Tuesday showed us that the high volume decline Friday followed by a lower volume rally on Monday, wasn't the end of the world.
The dollar went up again yesterday which kept the I fund in struggles-ville while the C and S funds put together back to back strong days. Again I believe the I fund will not perform as well as the C and S funds this year but it is due for a little catch up here. I will look to get out of the I fund if we see a rally in that fund.
That's all for today. Currently 65% C, 20% S, 15% I fund. Until next time...
Back to back strong days this week certainly helps the bulls' case but the choppy market lately could prove a tough test for continued strength as we've had trouble putting more than a few good days in a row together. One down day wouldn't be terrible here but I like when the talk is negative and the market climbs that wall of worry. If can we get this little pattern to continue, the S&P 500 should make another new short term high (above 1180) before retreating. We seem to have put in two higher lows to start another rising support line. So far so good on the 1994 comparison...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
If the 1994 pattern can continue we should have about another four weeks of bullish action before the consolidation hits the downside.
Yesterday I mentioned that it would be nice to see a higher volume follow through day after the recent lower volume rally. I guess I wasn't the only one talking about it because my friend Jason Goepfert at www.sentimentrader.com decided to challenge that thinking...
"So much attention is focused on whether volume is higher or lower on a day the broader market closes higher or lower. Rarely, however, is any data presented about why we should care…usually we just get some vague mumblings about “accumulation” or “distribution” days. The past two days have supposedly seen the worst of all worlds – a decline on Friday with higher volume than the day before, then a rise today [Monday] with lower volume. But what has that actually meant? Since 1997, after such one-two punches the S&P has actually out-performed a random day from 1 to 60 days later. This is why I place little to no weight on market-wide volume figures."
Tuesday showed us that the high volume decline Friday followed by a lower volume rally on Monday, wasn't the end of the world.
The dollar went up again yesterday which kept the I fund in struggles-ville while the C and S funds put together back to back strong days. Again I believe the I fund will not perform as well as the C and S funds this year but it is due for a little catch up here. I will look to get out of the I fund if we see a rally in that fund.
That's all for today. Currently 65% C, 20% S, 15% I fund. Until next time...
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