Another anemic day Monday as again we saw the lowest volume (number of shares traded on the stock market) of the year. It has been eerily quiet the past few days. Something seems to be brewing. This is options expiration week and we should see a positive bias.
I have very little to add to what I have been saying
lately. The one thing I will talk about is the I fund. It
has played me like a fool. Some of our members on the message
board have done an excellent job tracking the I fund. I'm avoiding
it because lately it has gone against me no matter what I do.
The EAFE index, which the I fund tracks, is the main catalyst for the I
fund but as we know the dollar is also a major factor. I won't
even guess what is going to happen but I will show you a short and long
term chart. In the short term it looks as if the dollar does have
room to move down but if the dollar is going to continue its recent
uptrend, peak #2 should go above peak #1 before it goes down to point
#3. That would keep the recent uptrend alive. The short term
PMO indicator (momentum) seems to telling us the dollar may make another
move down.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
On the longer term chart below you can see the bottom has remained above
the 20 plus year support area near 80. The longer term PMO appears
to be giving a buy signal for the first time since about 1999 (blue line
crossing above the green).
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
This tells me that the dollar may help out the I fund in the short term
(weeks to months) but may be beginning a longer term period where the I
fund may have some trouble if the dollar has truly bottomed.
That's all for today. Currently 60% C, 40% S fund. See you tomorrow.
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