How about this market? Whether you are invested in stocks or sitting on the sidelines, the swings have our attention. Yesterday the bulls took charge with a nice gain but once again ran into resistance near the 1212 area. Tech stocks in particular perked up as it seem investors rotated out of the oil and homebuilding type stocks and bought into the semiconductors. But just after the market closed, there were several earning warnings from tech companies which could put some pressure on stocks today.
As I have been saying for days now, the market can go either way. I hate to miss those big up days but I am not going to attempt to play these wiggles in the market with my indicators all over the place. The overbought/oversold indicator is leaning toward overbought. The ARMS index 10-day moving average is close to a sell signal. The McClellan Oscillator is basically neutral. The sentiment surveys are leaning toward bearish (which is bullish). The NYSE, S&P 400, and 600 indices (Mid and small caps) have all made new 52 week highs but the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have not. Volume was very high during Monday's sell off but it was also respectably high during yesterday's rally. No answers there.
I hate to keep showing the same chart over and over but I want to illustrate the power of trend lines. Whether you believe in technical analysis or not, sometimes these support and resistance areas can be self fulfilling prophesies. Should the market go down just because it hit resistance? Probably not. But I don't want to stick around to find out. Something obviously triggered selling, or a lack of buying, each time the market hit the 1212 area.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
Can you tell I am running out of ways to explain the current market
action? I am stumped and waiting on something to happen to give me
a clearer picture. I don't know if a breakout to the upside will
do that. I want to watch how the "smart" and "dumb" money react to
a breakout.
That's all for today. Currently 100% G fund. Waiting,
waiting, waiting. See you
tomorrow.
I want to welcome those new employees being given a
TSP presentation today by the one and only Bob. I
hope today's indecisive babble didn't turn you off.
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