Market Comments March 25, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 03/24/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.8148 12.5671 9.3849 10.8965 12.3615 $  Change - 0.0010 0.0154 -0.1921 -0.3174 -0.2585 % Chg day - +0.01% +0.12% -2.01% -2.83% -2.05% % Chg wk - +0.03% +0.11% +4.94% +4.29% +3.60% % Chg mon - +0.19% +1.15% +9.89% +8.29% +9.68% % Chg 2009 - +0.58% -0.11% -10.06% -10.73% -13.28%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.3899 11.6691 12.0674 13.4769 12.5849 $  Change - -0.2058 -0.1839 -0.1567 -0.0826 -0.0524 % Chg day - -1.77% -1.55% -1.28% -0.61% -0.41% % Chg wk - +3.63% +3.21% +2.70% +1.35% +0.95% % Chg mon - +7.98% +7.06% +5.99% +3.08% +2.21% % Chg 2009 - -8.80% -7.56% -6.15% -2.57% -1.56%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

Profit taking You know it has been a wild market environment when you can have day that is down between 2% and 3%, and it is just a minor pullback from the prior day's gains.  The pullback was on lighter volume which can be considered a plus for stocks. The S&P 500 is certainly putting up some impressive numbers, but can it keep it up or is this just another bear market rally that is destined to fail?  I would sure like to see this bear market end so we can start making some money, but I still haven't seen the evidence that it is over.                     Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I have posted this 2000-2002 bear market chart many times, and one thing is abundantly clear on it:  There are dips and rallies with very distinct lower highs and lower lows.  The rallies were very strong, and they always found resistance at the 200-day moving average, something this bear market has not been able to do since last September, but is a possibility.                    Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk It wasn't until early to mid-2003 that we finally saw a definitive break above the 200-day moving average, a higher high on an intermediate-term timeframe, and the 50-day moving average move above the 200-day moving average.  So, while you might have missed the first thrust of the new bull market, you would have caught the majority of the bull market gains over the following months and years.  Plus, the successful double and triple bottoms may have been a hint to get in a little earlier. We have seen some positive action, but we haven't seen the above criteria met yet - no successful test, no higher highs, or positive action from the moving averages.  It will come eventually, but not so far.  I'm not saying that I will wait for all of the ducks to line up before getting invested, but seeing those technical set ups will be a great confirmation that the bear market is ending.  Until then, the bear market rules continue to apply.  Sell rallies. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow!