Good news, bad news.

The good news is oil fell over $2 a barrel on Wednesday.  The bad new is the market couldn't  rally on that news.  What are the bulls waiting for?  What is going to get them to start buying? 

The market was certainly choppy yesterday.  Not much conviction either way which I will take as a bearish sign since the news on oil was so positive.  Of course that could be a short term drop in oil but investors might have been using any strength in stocks to do some selling.  Again nothing bullish about that. 

                    

Assuming we see one, I am waiting on another sell off to commit the rest of my chips to the pot.  The one indicator that keeps bothering me is that 10-day ARMs index.  I talked about it in Monday's comments if you need a refresher.  Not only is it not getting closer to a buy signal, it has actually been going up this week which is much closer to a sell signal.  It is nearing the high it made in late December when the market was very overbought.  This indicator tells us that their just isn't a lot of fear out there, and that is likely why we can't get a rebound.  If everyone expects a rebound, the market tends to disappoint.  The rebound will come when the herd finally gives up.  My guess is that it will come sometime next week.  Today is the day before a holiday and that traditionally has a positive bias.

Later today we'll get the new AAII Investor Sentiment Survey figures telling us how bullish or bearish investors are.  If we don't see 40% or higher bearish percent I will be surprised, and disappointed.  As I have been saying, complacency is not going to start a rally.  Fear will. 

I'm going to put two charts up that need little commentary.  The dollar is rising, and high flying oil has finally taken a breather.


                          Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com


                          Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
                       
That's all for today.  Currently 40% G, 60% C fund.  I may or may not update the comments for Friday.  The stock market is closed Friday but I haven't heard whether the TSP offices will be accepting transactions that day.   If they are open, we'll have an extra day to decide what to do for Monday.  Have a good weekend and Happy Easter.