Market Comments February 19, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 02/18/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7810 12.5445 9.1446 10.7111 11.8040 $  Change - 0.0009 -0.0419 -0.0085 -0.1564 -0.0376 % Chg day - +0.01% -0.33% -0.09% -1.44% -0.32% % Chg wk - +0.09% +0.87% -9.14% -9.86% -9.91% % Chg mon - +0.13% +0.58% -4.32% -4.43% -5.98% % Chg 2009 - +0.32% -0.29% -12.36% -12.25% -17.19%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 11.0896 11.3873 11.8070 13.3059 12.4633 $  Change - -0.0437 -0.0383 -0.0308 -0.0162 -0.0105 % Chg day - -0.39% -0.34% -0.26% -0.12% -0.08% % Chg wk - -7.70% -6.76% -5.64% -2.68% -1.81% % Chg mon - -3.83% -3.32% -2.75% -1.23% -0.79% % Chg 2009 - -11.21% -9.79% -8.18% -3.81% -2.51%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

Pause The major indices were relatively flat yesterday although small caps were hit pretty hard again.  The F-fund pulled back after Tuesday's big bond rally, and the I-fund was off modestly as the dollar continued to rally. The S&P 500 was down fractionally after Tuesday's sell-off, and we have seen this pattern before; a minor pause after a sell-off, followed by a short-term pop to the upside.  With it being an options expiration week, I can see a push higher in the coming days before the next move down.                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk As I mentioned yesterday, there is a large gap on the S&P chart between 818 and 825, so I am looking at 825 as a possible target for any rally - if we're lucky enough to get one. Interesting times for the dollar.  It has done a lot better than I had expected after that steep decline in December, but here it is now flirting with the 2008 high and double tops tend to pose trouble on charts.  I will really be surprised if we see a breakout on the first try.                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I have to end this early today as I am working on a technical issue on the site.  If anything interesting happens this morning (Thursday) I may make a mid-day update. I am looking for a short-term rally for perhaps a day or two, I just haven't decided if I want to put my money where my mouth is yet.  If we're wrong, it could get ugly. Update Thursday 09:23 AM ET:  The futures are up sharply this morning and it is amazing how many people are now looking for an options related bounce.  It could be a self-fulfilling prophesy, but it may also be too obvious of a play at this point.  When everyone expects something to happen, be wary of the opposite being true.  I am looking for that bounce, but this makes me nervous. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you tomorrow!