Market Comments February 10, 2009 TSP Fund share prices as of: 02/09/09 Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 12.7724 12.4427 10.0792 11.8606 13.1123 $  Change - 0.0029 0.0066 0.0143 -0.0223 0.0102 % Chg day - +0.02% +0.05% +0.14% -0.19% +0.08% % Chg wk - +0.06% -0.24% +5.46% +5.83% +4.44% % Chg mon - +0.06% -0.24% +5.46% +5.83% +4.44% % Chg 2009 - +0.25% -1.10% -3.40% -2.84% -8.02%   L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income 12.0213 12.2185 12.5189 13.6782 12.6974 $  Change - 0.0061 0.0060 0.0063 0.0054 0.0045 % Chg day - +0.05% +0.05% +0.05% +0.04% +0.04% % Chg wk - +4.25% +3.73% +3.11% +1.53% +1.08% % Chg mon - +4.25% +3.73% +3.11% +1.53% +1.08% % Chg 2009 - -3.75% -3.20% -2.64% -1.12% -0.68%

Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)

The calm before... something The markets were quiet on Monday as the TSP funds were mixed but relatively flat.  Volume was light as investors continue to wait for word on the stimulus package. The S&P 500 stalled at the 50-day moving average, but volume was light and neither the bulls nor bears could make any headway.  The 850 to 870 area must be popular as the S&P has passed through that point every month since October.  The trading range is tightening as the wedge crawls toward the apex.                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk I guess all we can do is wait.  I am expecting another move down, but I have to admit that with everyone talking about a "sell the news" reaction to the completion of the stimulus package, it wouldn't surprise me to see the market move higher on the news instead.  It seems to work that way.  The market seems to like to disappoint the largest group of people possible.  I won't put my money where my mouth is since I am bearish and think the market will turn down, but I'm just throwing that out there as an overly pessimistic contrarian possibility. The dollar dropped below a recent support area, but it had move up so sharply that a pullback was due.  It is sitting on the 20-day moving average and remains above the 50-day moving average.  Those levels really need to hold as the next support area is down near 80-81.                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk There is a strong tendency for gold to move counter to the direction of the dollar, but for the last few months, they have both rallied strongly.                      Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk Both are due for pullbacks, but when you have two markets that usually move in opposite directions, and they are moving together, it usually turns out that one is "lying".  I am very curious to see if they do pullback together. The strength in the dollar has been trouble for the I-fund as it lags the other TSP stock funds by about 5% in '09.  If the dollar does pullback, it may be time for the I-fund to play catch-up. As we wait on the stimulus package, I was trying to think about what might help the market, as opposed to frighten it, but I am not sure anything is going to help Wall Street except time.  I am no economist but I believe a package that is geared solely toward stimulating the economy, rather than spending willy-nilly for sake of spending, would be more popular and taken more seriously by investors and taxpayers.  Recent polls show that only about 51% approve of the current plan.  Take out the spending that will not create jobs and save them for another day when we are more able to afford them.  They seem to be throwing around billions of taxpayer dollars, as if it were pocket change.  You have probably all heard the amazing analogy of just how much a trillion dollars is:  If Jesus gave out $1 million EVERY DAY since the day he was born, he would still not have given out a trillion dollars today.  In fact, he'd have to continue giving out those millions every day for another 700 years or so.  Now, that's a lot of money. That's all for today.  Thanks for reading.  See you back here tomorrow!