Market Comments

 
January 27, 2005
                                               

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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
Fear is good.  Another solid day. 

We had another good day in the market yesterday but certainly nothing indicating that the pullback is over.  I will feel a lot better if the S&P 500 climbs over the new downtrend line, currently at about 1180. 


                                
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com

There is a lot of overhead resistance so it would be very convincing if the S&P can move back over the trendline, and the 20 and 50-day averages, with good volume.  If it can't do that, I think I will look at this rally as a time to get out of the market at a better price.  I have a feeling we may see 1150 if we don't break above the new trend so I'm crossing my fingers.

As I mentioned many times, my nervousness tends to bring out the strength in the market.  That is why I am still fully invested.  Just because I am worried doesn't mean the market won't go up.  Markets climb a wall of worry, as they say.  We need pessimism out there so we know there are potential buyers in the wings.  If everyone was bullish, there would be no one left to buy.  They would have bought already.  Get it?  I mention this often because we get new readers all the time and this is not "normal" thinking.  It's my thinking.

That's all for today.  Enjoy the rally but stay cautious.  As I mentioned yesterday, if we see the S&P fall below 1163, I will likely get out.  Also, if the S&P can't get over 1180, we may get another leg down so I will also look at that as a time to get out.   Currently 50% C, 50% S fund.  See you tomorrow.


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