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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter

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RevShark's TSP Timing


with James "RevShark" De Porre

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TSP Timing Newsletter Weekly Commentary with James "RevShark" De Porre

September 19, 2022

It was an "if-it's-not-one-thing-it's-another" type of week for the TSP funds, as the market (if you can believe it) suffered its worst week of the year, with the C-Fund slipping back under an important lateral level (putting June lows back into view) and the I-Fund just avoiding hitting fresh lows.

In the prior week, the funds posted notable gains heading into another CPI, as chatter grew that the reading would come in much lower than expected... despite clear communication from the Fed that pushing inflation back down was their number one priority. Not unsurprisingly, the actual number came in higher than expected, as food costs and rents continued to surge.

Although there wasn't immediate downside follow-through, FDX spooked investors on Thursday by posting poor results and lowering guidance, noting global "demand weakness".

The million-dollar question, of course, is how this one-two punch sets the stage for the FOMC meeting this coming week.. A 75bps hike is a near certainty, but there's some talk that the Fed might go with a full 1%, but given the sobering results from FDX, some are wondering if the Fed might start to soften their rhetoric.

We'll see how it goes. Midterm years have historically been weak, but have also led to upside moves that begin once the political uncertainty is alleviated. We'll see how it goes, but at the end of the day, this market hasn't done anything yet to prove that its worth of our hard-earned capital.


Our current allocation is as follows:

G-Fund 100%

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