Thread: System Comments

Buddy, you have to be patient - you may even drop another 5% before things smooth out. I'm down close to $11K the last four days myself - but I've come to expect and tolerate the body hits. The difference between you and I is that I don't have anyone to blame but myself. Do you want me to bring the "Cooler" back?

Originally Posted by BigJames

I cannot believe how much I have lost since subscibing to one of the premium sites here. I am in physical pain from doing the exact opposite from what the market does because I chose to follow the "systems"reccomendations. I have been a paid subscriber for just over a week and I am down well over 15%. I pay for this advice??

Originally Posted by BigJames

I cannot believe how much I have lost since subscibing to one of the premium sites here. I am in physical pain from doing the exact opposite from what the market does because I chose to follow the "systems"reccomendations. I have been a paid subscriber for just over a week and I am down well over 15%. I pay for this advice??

I've been investing and trading since 1983 and let me tell you that no system can predict the market (no offense). Systems might get lucky for a while (few years maybe if your lucky) but thats it. The market is a monster of its own and almost imposible to predict. Learn what you can from the great people in this forum but I suggest you make your own desicions. If you want to be a short time player with your TSP (which should be a % of your total portafolio) get involved with the daily comments on these threads and make your moves. Furthermore, follow the market news and trends. It will get you better odds. Good luck!!

Originally Posted by BigJames

I cannot believe how much I have lost since subscibing to one of the premium sites here. I am in physical pain from doing the exact opposite from what the market does because I chose to follow the "systems"reccomendations. I have been a paid subscriber for just over a week and I am down well over 15%. I pay for this advice??

I'm so sorry to hear about your loss however, this site has always maintained that you manage your own funds. Subscribinig to the premium site doesn't guarantee a high return. It is a probability game based on many factors involved within the system. Additionally, one week is also not a good factor to base where your return will be one year, 5 years, or 10 years from now. Hang tight buddy...

Pyriel

Originally Posted by BigJames

I cannot believe how much I have lost since subscibing to one of the premium sites here. I am in physical pain from doing the exact opposite from what the market does because I chose to follow the "systems"reccomendations. I have been a paid subscriber for just over a week and I am down well over 15%. I pay for this advice??

Just curious - what made you subscribe to the system in the first place?

Originally Posted by BigJames

I cannot believe how much I have lost since subscibing to one of the premium sites here. I am in physical pain from doing the exact opposite from what the market does because I chose to follow the "systems"reccomendations. I have been a paid subscriber for just over a week and I am down well over 15%. I pay for this advice??

I'm not clear on how you lost 15% over the last week or so... kinda running the calcs here, and if you made the worst move everyday you would still have done better than that. And, the premium services here seem to have had different results than you claim. Maybe I'm missin' something though...

Maybe you should make your own moves, or take a longer view regarding any system's "prognostics" .

If not, off you go to the L funds...

SkyPilot, I was thinking the same thing. I am impressed that someone could make such perfectly timed moves to lose such a large amount in a week!! It seems that if you had that system, but took the reciprocal or changed the sign somewhere, you'd have a perfectly timed system to make the best gains!!

Originally Posted by BigJames

I cannot believe how much I have lost since subscibing to one of the premium sites here. I am in physical pain from doing the exact opposite from what the market does because I chose to follow the "systems"reccomendations. I have been a paid subscriber for just over a week and I am down well over 15%. I pay for this advice??

You're not down "well over 15%" if you followed any of the systems. If you want to cancel let us know, but don't make outrageous claims on a public forum that just aren't true. One system was hit hard, but if you hit it exactly wrong, from it's peak to bottom, you lost about half of what you claim you lost. It was down 1.34% in October when it went to subscription, and is down 2.7% in November being in the S fund Thursday. If you lost 15% you might want to see if someone took a loan out on your account.

I assume you subscribed because it was up 12.5% in August and September. It's an aggressive, volatile system, and it's not for everyone.

SHHHH! Don't bash the "system". We wouldn't want to hurt the site's profits.

Since you volunteered yourself as an example, I'll reiterate....

The problem with the retail investor is that they don't want to make money in stocks over 20, 10, 5 or 1 years or tommorrow. They want to make money today. I actually blame the retail investor more than wall street for the pressure of performance. If a mutual fund has one bad quarter where they don't 'beat the market', they'd better get ready for $$$ outflows. If they have a quarter that beats the market, the individual investor will chase the performance and pile in.

The Mutual Fund industry is in a bind because most professional money managers would rather go for value than bandwagon stocks. The retail investor might look at the fund's top 10 holdings and see companies that aren't 'beating the market' right now. That will deter some investors from dumping their tax return into that particular fund at the end of the year. However, if a fund has AAPL, CSCO and DRYS as top ten holdings, the retail investor will say, "Wow, this fund is awesome. Look at the holdings this has. It's gonna go to the moon!". In reality this fund may have built positions in these companies simply to attract and retain more 'dumb' money and sold losers to offset taxes.

Sounds crazy but it isn't. This is how it works. This is what is called window dressing and it happens every quarter. If you want more on this subject, this is one of many good books to read.
http://www.amazon.com/Great-Mutual-F.../dp/0767910710

As far as your experience with the system you chose is going, you are not giving it a fair evaluation period. You simply chased performance and expected that the 40% it's made so far to translate into 60% by year end. Most money managers this year have only made 1-10% on average with volatility. What's the SP500 at right now? 5-7% I don't know. Fact of the matter is, the system you may be talking about will have managed to not just beat, but CRUSH 90% of professional money managers this year even if it lost 15% in one day. The numbers some of the systems on this site have put up are simply remarkable enough to make a professional manager cry.

"I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." Jesse Livermore

Originally Posted by VirginiaBob

SHHHH! Don't bash the "system". We wouldn't want to hurt the site's profits.

just don't lie.

That's your 2nd post about profits. Four years of free services and TSP Talk finally makes some money - and now we're bad guys? Well, I sure hope the companies in the S&P, Wilshire and EAFE make profits.

I find your attitude rather puzzling. Care to share why you don't want TSP Talk to profit? Would you rather it went under?