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Thread: My two cents, Tom,

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    , Indiana, USA
    Posts
    78

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    (Tom Wrote, I normally like to buy weakness and sell strength so it was probably a mistake to sell Thursday's drop. That was the emotional side of trading taking over moments before the deadline. But I realize I have a lot of people watching and following these moves so I felt better being more conservative. The extreme bullishness I had during the last half of 2004 has been replaced by uncertainty and a more conservative approach. I don't even want to guess what may happen in the days ahead. I'd rather see what happens and try to react.

    Tom, When you step up to the freethrow line, shoot the shot you've practice a thousand times and don't worry about how it looks or the way the crowd wants you to shoot the ball.

    GTO




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  3. #2

    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    , Colorado, USA
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    1,451

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    <clap, clap, clap>



    ...hey! Who turned out the light?

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  5. #3

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    That's good advice, but I know where Tom is coming from. I'm going the other directionnow and getting out of stocks during a time when there's

    1) A rally

    2) Good news for the market (Iraq elections, "moderate" rate hike by the Fed with positive comments from Sir Greenspan)

    3) Probablymore good market news tonight as the Presdent talks about privatizing social security

    I"m quite the contrarian.

    It could be a bad move on my part, but I'll stick with my plan/system.I think we allsecond guess our systems or decisions at times. Butif you have amethod of investing that's sound and produces good results in the long term, you should stick with it...even when you start todoubt yourself.

    John

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  7. #4

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    Tom, When you step up to the freethrow line, shoot the shot you've practice a thousand times and don't worry about how it looks or the way the crowd wants you to shoot the ball


    I definitely take more into consideration when I make a transfer than most do. Ithink about whether I have enough time tosend out the email alerts,update the message board and get the transfer done, all within a reasonable time for those watching to react. Last Thursday morning, I think it was, I can within a hair of bagging the transfer because I had to leave my building, finding a PC and do all of the above, and time was running out.

    I also consider if this move will confuse readers or contradict something I recently said. Ithink about having toupdate my allocations page, update the returns page, write about the changein the coming market comments, etc.

    So when I make a transfer I can't just decide 5 minutes before the deadline and be done with it as someof you can do. (likenamor ). Doing the allocation change takes less than a minute but the site has changed that for me and made me think a lot harder about whether it is a reasonable thing to do and whetherthe change is worthall of the trouble. :*

    I'm not saying it's a bad thing. But it's tough to just "shoot the shot". But thanks GTO, for wanting me to just do my thing. I wish I could.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5

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    Like NASCAR, everyone wants to see the wrecks...

    Keep up the great work.

    MT

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  11. #6

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    tsptalk wrote:
    Doing the allocation change takes less than a minute but the site has changed that for me and made me think a lot harder about whether it is a reasonable thing to do and whetherthe change is worthall of the trouble. :*

    Tom, although we appreciate your time, trouble and effort, you must first do for yourself what you are trying help everyone else do, that is, make a profit. As your situation has changed, and notifying folks of last minute changes has become very difficult, you may need to suspend last minute alerts, so as to make sure you get your changes in. With the 1-2 day delay, you need all the flexibility you can get, and losing these last couple of hours during the trading day are devastating.

    While this site is a great tool for the rest of us, it should not be a financial liability for you, which with a work suspension already on the books, it is obviously costing you a great deal, only part of which we know. We all are responsible for our own decisions; so don't feel like you have to carry us on your back. Your good heart may ultimately prove the axiom "nice guys finish last." Only you can ultimately determine if posting these last minute changes is a "reasonable thing to do", but IMHO, I suggest it is not. You owe us nada! :-)

    Thanks again for all your care and hard work.

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  13. #7

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    Hey, Tom, I ditto Chaplain's comment.



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  15. #8

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    Chaplain wrote:
    While this site is a great tool for the rest of us, it should not be a financial liability for you,
    Those last minute transfers haven't paid off for me lately so maybe doing fewer transfers is a bonus.

    Thanks for the kind words!
    Tom
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #9

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    MarketTimer wrote:
    Like NASCAR, everyone wants to see the wrecks...

    Keep up the great work.

    MT
    I don't know exactly what that means. We have done exceptionally well over the last six months... being bullish.

    I'm not a perma-bull, I go with the flow. Do you, or are you a perma-bear?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

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    OHHHHHHHHHHHH major crash turning into turn two.....

    DO you know what I mean now?????

    I have been preaching on here to sell into any RALLY.

    SELL INTO ANY RALLY. What do I hear in return....the charts and data look great...you are a fool for not being bullish.

    Major crush in turn two. TSP statement going into the wall.

    Like I told you - if you are not bearish now...you never will be.

    Do not have a repeat of 2000 and be down 30% and say...HEY I SHOULD GO BEARISH.

    Got two words for ya - Cha Ching....my shorts our up to my eyes....rack like a cat in a on the beach.

    Major crash in turn three....darn if they keeps up there will be no cars left.

    Good luck out there!

    MT

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  21. #11

    Post imported post

    MarketTimer wrote:
    OHHHHHHHHHHHH major crash turning into turn two.....

    DO you know what I mean now?????

    I have been preaching on here to sell into any RALLY.

    SELL INTO ANY RALLY. What do I hear in return....the charts and data look great...you are a fool for not being bullish.

    Major crush in turn two. TSP statement going into the wall.

    Like I told you - if you are not bearish now...you never will be.

    Do not have a repeat of 2000 and be down 30% and say...HEY I SHOULD GO BEARISH.

    Got two words for ya - Cha Ching....my shorts our up to my eyes....rack like a cat in a on the beach.

    Major crash in turn three....darn if they keeps up there will be no cars left.

    Good luck out there!

    MT

    LOL! Yeah there will be cars left, I am stuck in G for Go. Don't worry this will turn around again. Thing is do not panick! Think about this market whats it going to do people. Yes market down, what do you need to do. It may look like your losing money but are you, not if you play it right. When stuck in a declining market just shift gears and buy the losing fund and gain share!!

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  23. #12

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    Yeah try to tell them not to BUY into a rally but SELL into any rally and what do they do??? Buy into the rally...goodness me...the human mind....was all most like they forgot January all ready.

    I love this board...should be renamed to greed/need and I am a bull, ram me with your horns.

    Just read the data and look at the charts and take a step back and say...slowing economy, GDP less then I bonds, raising inflation, the dollar is dropping like a rock and the fed is tightening...I would be scared crapless not I AM STAYING BULLISH, pound chest...grab nads....gold is telling you the story...oil is near $50 a barrel and PEs and fed data is at 25 a barrel....run, run, run.

    God bless.

    MT

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