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Thread: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

  1. #13

    Default Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    Hi Ed -

    Trader Fred was thinking of incorporating longer term signals like MA crossovers, but your point was the same as mine - you miss a big part of the move before the signals are given.

    You might want to incorporate sentiment into your mix. Depending which method you use (surveys, put/call ratios, rydex asset allocation, etc.) you can get a better feel for bottoms and tops based on extreme readings. Just a thought.

    Also, the win-win situation you mention assumes something that may not be true. I don't think the TSP wanted everyone to win. They were hell bent on stopping the frequent trading. They gave 2 reasons for not implementing a fee structured system. The first said they were worried participants would make mistakes and be charged a fee for something they didn't want to do, which is a little insulting. The second was that they were not sure exactly how much to charge per transaction since they don't always know how much the transaction will cost. The second one makes more sense.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #14

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Berwick Maine. (Were,,,, no one lives in Maine!!!)
    Posts
    281

    Default Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    For what it’s worth, I too have tracked and charted the TSP since May of 2003 and use that information as a primary source in decision making. I also listen carefully to market sentiment for bear and bull bias. My TV is stuck on CNBC though I don’t put there opinions in concrete. I do pay attention to treasuries and indicators as to were the money is going.
    As to the IFT’s controversy. It is my opinion that there are segments of our government that are looking at a 250 billion dollar piggy bank and would love to get another 10% into the G fund to play with!
    Last edited by camper65; 05-09-2008 at 02:04 PM.
    Never let your friends determine who your friends are going to be!.

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  5. #15

    Default Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    Let me get this correct so I dont shoot myself in the foot. If I am sitting 100% 'I', I can make unlimited moves in increments to the G fund? Even surpassing the 2 set by FTRB

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  7. #16

    Default Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    Quote Originally Posted by buda View Post
    Let me get this correct so I dont shoot myself in the foot. If I am sitting 100% 'I', I can make unlimited moves in increments to the G fund? Even surpassing the 2 set by FTRB
    YES,,,,,,Buda, thats correct. 1% at a time,,,,,5% at a time,,,,,50%
    at a time,,,,,,,etc

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  9. #17

    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Warner Robins, GA
    Posts
    73

    Default But now comes the tricky part.....

    Quote Originally Posted by buda View Post
    Let me get this correct so I dont shoot myself in the foot. If I am sitting 100% 'I', I can make unlimited moves in increments to the G fund? Even surpassing the 2 set by FTRB
    I thought the same thing, start with a high allocation, then scale back into the G fund as the climate changes, then, if you are heavy G, and something positive happens where you want to get back into stocks, use YOUR SECOND IFT to shift into stocks......WRONG!!!,,,, I tried that, and now I cannot make a second trade, the TSP line 'helper' says that my first 2 trades, any 2 trades, count as my 2 IFTs for the month, then I can only do a G fund transfer....even if my second trade was a stock to G fund......I do not agree, I was of the opinion that we could do a Stock Fund (C, S, I, F) into G anytime and it would not count, but by their logic, if I started the month from the previous month heavy in stocks, and on the second moved 25% into G fund, then another 25% into G fund 2 days later, I have now completed "my 2 trades for the month".......And I do not believe that is what the TSP said we could do....since I did not trade into stocks (i.e. I did not increase my allocation into a stock fund), and only increased my G fund holdings FROM MY STOCK HOLDINGS, I thought that was unlimited....but TSP is counting any first 2 transfers as the first 2, then only G fund transfers......Anyone have a better read on this???

    Thanks, EA

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  11. #18

    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Utah
    Posts
    1,991

    Default Re: But now comes the tricky part.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Eagle_Addict View Post
    I thought the same thing, start with a high allocation, then scale back into the G fund as the climate changes, then, if you are heavy G, and something positive happens where you want to get back into stocks, use YOUR SECOND IFT to shift into stocks......WRONG!!!,,,, I tried that, and now I cannot make a second trade, the TSP line 'helper' says that my first 2 trades, any 2 trades, count as my 2 IFTs for the month, then I can only do a G fund transfer....even if my second trade was a stock to G fund......I do not agree, I was of the opinion that we could do a Stock Fund (C, S, I, F) into G anytime and it would not count, but by their logic, if I started the month from the previous month heavy in stocks, and on the second moved 25% into G fund, then another 25% into G fund 2 days later, I have now completed "my 2 trades for the month".......And I do not believe that is what the TSP said we could do....since I did not trade into stocks (i.e. I did not increase my allocation into a stock fund), and only increased my G fund holdings FROM MY STOCK HOLDINGS, I thought that was unlimited....but TSP is counting any first 2 transfers as the first 2, then only G fund transfers......Anyone have a better read on this???

    Thanks, EA
    The reason TSP presents for the IFT limit is to decrease costs. (Right.) But because that's the reason, you only get 2 IFTs for the month.

    ANY 2 IFTs count!

    Then in order to ensure that we can get our $ to safety in case of an extreme market downturn (again their thoughts not mine) they have magnanimously allowed us to move to G after we have used our 2 IFTs for the month. I think at the time they set up the rules they hadn't considered incremental moves to G or they'd probably have blocked that as well.

    Lady


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  13. #19

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    2,045

    Default Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    It's two plus G. The first two IFT's of the month are "unrestricted" - you can move to ANY fund. This includes IFT's TO G FUND - they count. Once you've used those two "unrestricted" IFT's, you are restricted to IFT's ONLY TO G FUND. However, you can make as many transfers to G fund as you want.

    If your first IFT of the month is to G fund, you've just used one of your "unrestriced" IFT's. So be careful. One strategy is to set up at the end of the month for the following month by moving into G on the last day of the month. That way you start the month with a clean slate - two IFT's.

    The rules on TSP website are pretty clear, they even give an example using an IFT to G fund as the first or 2nd IFT of the month, and we've discussed it in-depth on several threads here.
    Last edited by luv2read; 06-20-2008 at 09:56 AM.

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  15. #20

    Default Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    That's about as crystal clear as it gets L2R.

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  17. #21

    Wink Re: Time for new thoughts- and strategies

    Ok, new strategies are starting to form. But questions come into play.

    Is it better to be in the Stock Funds (C,S,I) going into a new month,
    or, is it better to be in the (G,F) Funds to start a new month ?
    IMHO, that answer will change depending on the current market conditions
    and your risk tolerance. If your in the middle of a rally, who in their right
    mind would bail just to be in the (G) for the beginning of any given month.
    Then again, you can always bail to the (G) but run out of IFT's. Each
    individual situation holds a seperate meaning for each participant. Simply
    saying that I want to be in stocks at the beginning of each month due to
    the limits imposed (I've heard it already), is NOT looking at the big picture
    and should not be a rule of thumb. Even if the Market dictates that kind
    of positioning for several months, many other factors should be considered
    before making that decision.

    Just Spouting Off Some Thoughts.

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