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Thread: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

  1. #1

    Default Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Can we get a few days of rally here, or do we head south on Monday again - or even late Friday?

    I decided to buy this morning, but will look to bail if we approach the new declining resistance line, currently 1120-1130, depending on how quickly it gets there. The low today was 1056. The 200-day EMA could act as resistance aslo (1102) on a closing basis.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


  2.  
  3. #2

    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Looks like sell the rumor (financial reform) buy the news is playing out.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #3

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Looks like sell the rumor (financial reform) buy the news is playing out.
    agreed, maybe a little of the German rush-job on Euro-leg too. If you look at the $tran chart and when the bounces have come off the 200 EMA, a key piece of legislation has been stuffed through. This backs my opinion that Govt's and Central Banks know how to find a counter-party and use fear and when there's this much manipulation integral to the world economy's success, creating fear and finding a counter-party is synonomous... at some point they will have to engineer a soft landing.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TR...d=p55217204500

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  7. #4

    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Nice chart - I had to post it...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    been watching- vix still next to 40.
    Looking for options info after reading- The market has rallied on huge volume caused by owners of put options that are closing out their potential short positions. Monday will be a down day after this false floor goes away.

    I don't know what is high volume or not- care to comment?
    http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

    found this on alpha: -Liked the article, too long to post.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2062...d?source=hp_wc

    "We may well have a chance to buy cheap equities. Remember, Richard Russell has warned that stocks trading where they are now could be a precursor to a “major crash.” Nouriel Roubini, always a cheerful chap, says we are going down another 20% (which isn’t too bad given how much we have rallied over the last year). The Senate is moving to a final vote on financial regulatory reform. Coincidence? Sure.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Yeah, options expiration will push volume, particularly after a week like this week.

    We are seeing the signs point toward a rare crash - but that's just it - they are rare. More often then not you get an oversold rally. That is why we must be nimble here. Lock in profits quickly if you can get them on rallies. I am still not ruling out new highs in the coming weeks / months, but I probably won't play it that way. I will take profits quickly.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  12.  
  13. #7

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Hmmmm. Know anything about this guy?

    http://www.benzinga.com/trading-idea...et-spy-qqqq-xl

    Posted on 05/21/10 at 8:48am by Jason Raznick


    James Altucher, stockpickr founder and Managing Director at Formula Capital, made a significant long call on twitter this morning.
    Mr. Altucher said he is looking to buy stocks today. James Altucher said, "My prediction for today. The day looks like 9/21/01. bottom by 10am then up for next 3 months. Going to put my money on this."
    James continued, "Europe has to take forceful QE action today or this wkend : straight buying of sovereigns, stocks, whatever, w/out sterilizing on back end $$*."
    If James' prediction is correct, a good way to follow James into this long trade would be to look at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQQ) or the beaten up Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF).
    James Altucher is a successful hedge fund manager and was once recruited by several funds for his many prescient calls. However, he never had a chance to work for arguably the best trader on the planet, James Simons of Renassiance Technologies as Altucher never finished his PhD degree (Simons only hires scientists and PhDs). Simons is smart so you can't criticize his hiring processes, but in this case, he lost out on some significant alpha.
    On a personal note, I prefer PhD's, but rather of the poor, hungry and driven type (hat tip Dan Gilbert).
    *The '$$' is a tag that Howard Lindzon's stocktwits uses to tag twitter posts to the stocktwits feed.
    Disclosure: I have an investment in stocktwits.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-advis...ou-make-money/

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  15. #8

    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    Its a trap.
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    I don't know if anyone read my May 10 market commentary, but everything I was looking for has happened. I have to ignore the emotions and stick with the plan.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


  18.  
  19. #10

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    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    I looked at charts of that era, I'm no expert by any means, but this drop is way sharper than that time by far
    -I mean over the immediate term. There were months of decline in 2001 before the bottom fell out.

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  21. #11

    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    I just added this to today's commentary (5/21)...

    "How could I have forgotten to mention the 0.38 bulls (25%) to bears (66%) ratio from yesterday's Sentiment Survey? That is the lowest (most bearish) ratio since June of 2005, and the 2nd most bearish reading since we have been doing these surveys. It is trying to tell us a bounce is coming."

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  22.  
  23. #12

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    Default Re: Playable bounce coming, or a trap?

    2005... ahhh the days of wine and glory, when housing values around here were 25% higher year over year.

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