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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5521

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The first seasonal trend I ever learned
    2023-05-30 | Jay Kaeppel

    A little-known seasonal trend arguing for more

    The rhetorical question is, "Can the rally that started in October 2022 continue through the end of 2025?" It sounds pretty ridiculous, I admit. And no, that is not a prediction.

    Still, hear me out.

    The truth is I don't remember where I first read about the seasonal trend I am about to discuss. Well, technically, I do. It was in the Des Plaines library in mid-1982, where I often spent my lunch hour digesting whatever stock market information I could find. But when I say I don't remember "where," I mean I don't remember the actual source I read about it from. That is probably partly because, at the time I read it, I thought it was the dumbest thing I'd ever read. But as a numbers geek - er, I mean, Student of the Market - I did what I always did a lot at the time - I jotted it down so I could come back later and see how it worked out.

    It turns out, I'm glad I did.

    The trend? (I hope you're sitting down):

    Every 20 years, the 39-month period that extends from September 30th of the Year ending in 2 (1902, 1922, 1942, etc.) through December 31st of the Year ending in 5 (1905, 1925, 1945, etc.) has been bullish for the stock market.

    I know, I know. It's the dumbest thing you've ever read, right? I know because I had the exact same reaction. It's ridiculous.......
    More: https://users.sentimentrader.com/use...i-ever-learned

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  2.  
  3. #5522

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Once again the jobs data estimates were way off. The market seems to like the +339,000 report, but that sounds inflationary so it is more likely that the futures are applauding the rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7%, which is above the 3.5% expected, and that may keep the Fed off the rate hike train later this month. Estimates were looking for a gain of 190,000 jobs.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #5523

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Breakouts, or fake out? Selling big 2-day rallies has been the trend in recent months. But today we see some breakouts. Is it different this time?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #5524

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Breakouts, or fake out? Selling big 2-day rallies has been the trend in recent months. But today we see some breakouts. Is it different this time?
    With authority.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5525

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    S-fund: 200-day EMA held on an early pullback test. There is still an open gap below the average.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #5526

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    S&P 500 (C) is down slightly to start the day, small caps (S) are up modestly, and the I-fund is flat - as is the dollar.

    The 10-year yield is up pushing bonds and the F-fund down.

    It's early but the drag on the large cap indices is Apple, which is down again, and the small caps are taking advantage as money flows that way.

    There's an open gap below on the S-fund chart, but so far the 200-day EMA is holding, and perhaps starting a new bull flag?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


  12.  
  13. #5527

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The final straggler is trying to breakout again. Or is it another fake out?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #5528

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A quiet start to Thursday's trading. Yields and the dollar are down after jobless claims came in a little higher than expected.

    Small caps are lagging and the pullback in the dollar is helping the I-fund lead to start the day as EFA is up about a half of a percent in early trading.




    The Transports are pulling back some after yesterday's big rally and possible breakout.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #5529

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Large caps are doing their thing again with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up solidly this morning, but once again we have bifurcated action with small caps flat and the Transportation Index down so far.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  18.  
  19. #5530

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Large caps are doing their thing again with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up solidly this morning, but once again we have bifurcated action with small caps flat and the Transportation Index down so far.
    Come on "S" fund. Show a little green to end the week.
    May the force be with us.

  20.  
  21. #5531

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    There's plenty of trading time left in the day, but as of now we're seeing a negative sore thumb look on the S&P 500.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  22.  
  23. #5532

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    12,148

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The "S" fund couldn't finish the week in the green, but it wasn't a bad week overall.
    May the force be with us.

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