Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Ouch

Stocks are mixed but it's going to be a wild week so if you don't like what you see at any given moment, just wait.

The 10-year yield is all the way down to 3.5%.

Small caps are lagging (small banks stocks still a problem.)

Reminder - I am out of town and may be stuck in jury duty. Waiting to hear.

Yields lower to start the day (bonds open an hour before stock market.) Another test of the 200-day EMA. Another bounce? That is what the BND chart might suggest since bond prices move opposite to yields and the BND is in a bearish head and shoulders pattern filling out the right shoulder.

Small caps are leading this morning, on the hopes of more financial bailouts for the banks. But it's the S&P that has been forming, at this point, resembles a "V" bottom, although it is struggling with the 200-day EMA again this morning.

Yields are up as the 10-year again bounces off its 200-day EMA, and that means weakness in the F-fund to start the day.

Big week ahead with the two-day FOMC meeting starting tomorrow.

Busy morning. Nice gap up rally to start the morning with some backing and filling since, although the gap is still open. Lots of overhead resistance in the S&P and if I had to speculate, the Fed's decision tomorrow will make or break the +/- 4000 area.




Small caps are leading as the bailouts keep flowing. Perhaps this is containable... or is it the tip of the iceberg?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Busy morning. Nice gap up rally to start the morning with some backing and filling since, although the gap is still open. Lots of overhead resistance in the S&P and if I had to speculate, the Fed's decision tomorrow will make or break the +/- 4000 area.




Small caps are leading as the bailouts keep flowing. Perhaps this is containable... or is it the tip of the iceberg?

Cool, if we pop up tomorrow, I'm bailing, better to be first to leave the party, then the last one who drives the drunks home

From a Revshark tweet:

FOMC RATE HIKE FINAL ESTIMATES
NOMURA - 25 BPS ( EXPECTS RATE CUT)
BARCLAYS 0 BPS
CREDIT SUISSE 0 BPS
GOLDMAN SACHS 0 BPS
WELLS FARGO 0 BPS
BMO 25 BPS
CITI 25 BPS
BLOOMBERG 25 BPS
JP MORGAN 25 BPS
GURGAVIN CAPITAL 25 BPS
MORGAN STANLEY 25 BPS
RBC 25 BPS
MEDIAN 25 BPS

https://twitter.com/RevShark/status/1638242261426139155

Slow day of trading before the Fed announcement on interest rates at 2PM ET. Small caps are lagging again, but otherwise we are seeing a lot of flat action.

The dollar and yields are leaning lower but again, fairly flat.

We have some very interesting set ups in the index charts as many push up again resistance so we should either see a breakdown, or a major jump higher. It seems unlikely that things would stay flat. That is unless all of the estimates are correct and everything is priced in perfectly already. Even then, traders will push and pull and give us some volatility.

This chart looks particularly compelling. High Yield Corporate Bonds / credit market indicator.

A few minutes before the close and the charts have been doing a really good job of calling the shots. The bear flag on the small caps may be the most disturbing.

There's a very mixed picture on this chart with some short-term upside momentum off the March 13 low, but stiff resistance near yesterday's highs. It also bounced nicely off the 200-day SMA (orange average) and it is already back testing the 200-day EMA (blue.) The PMO indicator on the bottom is about to crossover its moving average, similar to the early January cross before the rally.




The S-fund chart looks bad, but bear flags haven't been breaking down so it's no slam dunk sell, even though it looks like one.




The I-fund nears overhead resistance, however it still has sort a bull flag look to it, if we just ignore the banking crash.




Mixed signals, for sure.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The S-fund chart looks bad, but bear flags haven't been breaking down so it's no slam dunk sell, even though it looks like one.

Getting dicey here in the S-fund with the red bear flag breaking. The blue lines represent some hope that it is still a sideways consolidation.