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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5293

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I don't know if it was a post Thanksgiving weekend thing, which has a poor record, or a December 1st thing, but during the bear market of 2008, there was a big rally during Thanksgiving week, but a monster 8.9% sell-off on the Monday afterward, which happened to be December 1st. That close however, was actually the low close for that month of December before another January sell off.

    Gee, what I would give to re-live that market again, only to know the outcome
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #5294

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are flat but the dollar is up putting a little pressure on the market to start the week, which to start, looks like a post holiday reversal action.

    Despite the weakness in the dollar, the I-fund (EFA) seems to be outperforming the US funds early on. It's not up, but it's down only about half of the S&P 500 loss.

    The VIX gapped up higher this morning with a 7% gain to start the day. It had been falling for a long time.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5295

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are up as this 10-year yield chart plays out in what looks like a bull flag, although it has been pinned below the 50-day EMA for more than a week now. Was this just a pre-holiday fake out only to bounce back after the holiday? Hard to say - end of a month, start of a new, and the final month of a bear market. There could be a lot of "play" going on as money managers pretty up their end of year reports.




    The index charts are just as wishy washy. The action was poor after the post holiday reversal yesterday, but a case can be made that we are seeing some bull flags in these charts. The 200-day averages are key resistance and on the S&P 500 3900 is key support. On the S-fund chart 1635 looks like the make or break area for support.



    It's tough to see but the 20-day EMA has also been holding as support on the DWCPF S-fund chart.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #5296

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks opened flat but we're starting to see a downward push about a half hour in. The Nasdaq is leading. Small caps are lagging. The dollar is down but the yield on the 10-year is up again, however still holding below the 50-day EMA.




    The economic data has been showing more signs of weakness, which is what the Fed wants and he will likely address that at his speech today. At Jackson Hole he couldn't have been more hawkish. Let's see what he has to say today -- and what it does to the market.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5297

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A couple of thoughts after this morning's stronger than expected jobs report.

    First, this throws some cold water on the premise that the Fed can stop worrying about inflation. Unfortunately, depressing the jobs market has been one of his goals and this report suggests that he has more work to do.

    The market has been torn between a strong economy with a Fed trying to stop that with tightening monetary conditions, and a weak economy that will almost certainly, based on historical tendencies, see a recession because of the Fed's actions.

    On the bullish side, this pullback is only testing the breakout area and it could be typical backing and filling. I would say the 4000 - 4030 area is key support that needs to hold.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5298

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The week starts with a rally in yields and the dollar, putting pressure on stocks and bonds.

    The 10-year T-note yield is rallying back up to some potential resistance, although the open gap near 3.7%, could be an eventual target.




    Small caps are lagging but remains within its recent ascending trading channel. The open gap near 1600 is still an obvious potential pullback target, but there is a lot of support between the current levels and that gap.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #5299

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The selling resumed on Tuesday morning and we are starting to see some cracks in the charts again. The S&P 500 and Dow Transportation Index charts below show some breakdowns from rising support. Yes, often these turn into fake outs to get folks leaning the wrong way, and in the case of the Transports, the 50-day EMA may be trying to pick up the slack. The steepness of the push off the recent highs is not "flag-like" action so it is a little more alarming and it sets up more sell the rallies formations.




    On Friday we get the PPI report, and next Tuesday the critical CPI report - then the Fed on Wednesday so this narrative could change quickly. However, don't forget what the effect of Powell's speech was last week... it turned a pullback into a monster rally, chased the bears out of their short position and got the bulls to jump in with both hands - only to have all flip back over and have all of these folks leaning the wrong way, which I have been stressing lately, and it happens all the time because the big money know how to play in your emotions.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #5300

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Despite some favorable moves in the bond market with yields falling again, and the dollar down, stocks are wavering again. The Atlanta Fed's latest Q4 GDP estimate suggests the economy is trying to hold firm but this won't give the Fed any reason to back of rate hikes.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #5301

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields up, dollar down, and the stock market is getting some relief with small caps leading on the upside.

    This is rather optimistic of investors with the PPI on deck tomorrow, and the CPI and rate kike next week. I thought maybe we could get a rally off of that data but now maybe it will turn into a set up of buy the rumor, sell the news?

    The indices were oversold in the short-term and due for some relief so we'll see if this has any legs, or if the bears are still in the sell the rallies mode.

    The initial jobless claims were a little higher than expected so the market seems to be celebrating some weakness in the jobs market, which has become the Fed's target.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #5302

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The hotter than expected PPI sent yields higher and initially stocks were down, but they've bounce back as they look for direction in front of next week's big CPI report and Fed meeting.

    The S&P 500 is up near the highs of the day but it's looking like a bear flag at the moment. It could break that flag with a move up closer to 4000, otherwise bear flags "tend" to break down.

    The market seems to be shaking off the sharp rally in yields, and modest gain in the dollar today as it juggles its concerns between inflation, and weakening economic data.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5303

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields and the dollar are down but I thought it was interesting that both the dollar and the S&P 500 are clinging above a major moving average for support, despite the fact that the two have been moving in different directions this year. My guess is one will break below their moving average and other will move in the opposite direction this week.


    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #5304

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    This VIX is up 7.6% with stocks up sharply? Hmmm.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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