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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5281

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    With yields and the dollar down, it's interesting to see small caps getting slammed today. The action bring the bear flag into the picture again, which has been a tease for the bears. 1625 - 1600 would be a good target with a confluence of support building up, but that would only give the bear flag an opportunity to break down.



    And, as TommyIV pointed out yesterday, the 200-day EMA has popped up as resistance again on the S&P 500.

    The EFA / I-fund is holding up well with the dollar down.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5282

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A gap down for stocks this morning so now the initial battle will be between the the gap near 3800 and now 3950, which was holding as support for 4 days.

    After failing at the 200-day EMA, the 100-day EMA (green) is trying to hold at today's lows, an average that has been meaningful on this chart over the last few months.




    A rally up in the 10-year yield isn't helping but the 50-day EMA is trying to keep it down.



    The dollar is spiking but this chart has a lot of cleaning up to do with all of those open gaps above. The I-fund may take a big hit today.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5283

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's options expiration day so you never know what the big position holders will do to the indices today, but next week is a typically bullish holiday week, although as I pointed out in today's commentary, prior bear market Thanksgiving weeks were inconsistent. There's that big open gap down near 3800 that will continue to vie for attention, but we also see a possible small bull flag above what looks like an important support / resistance area of 3900. All of it is below the 200-day moving averages, simple and exponential, so this is such an interesting situation.




    The yield on the 10-year and the dollar have been trending lower helping stocks to remain buoyant recently, and now there are possible bear flags on these charts. However the dollar has three large open gaps above that may want to get filled at some point, and that could put pressure on stocks if they are filled.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  7. #5284

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The first thing I notice this morning is the gap up in the dollar, which filled one (blue) of those three large gaps opened in November. Now there are still three open gaps but one is now below. It will be interesting to see if it reaches up more this week, or if it pullback to fill this morning's gap first.



    Yields are actually down in comparison, but so far it's the dollar having the impact on stock prices and pushing them slightly lower.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5285

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    If you missed today's commentary:

    Here are some returns of the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday of Thanksgiving week.



    In more recent years I have noticed the tendency for Friday after Thanksgiving to move in the opposite direction of Wednesday. That is what the W-F column is all about. It's the combined return of the two days. Friday is a half day of trading and when Wednesday was up, Friday has tended to be down, and if Wednesday was down, Friday tended to be a positive day. The half day on Friday last year after Thanksgiving yielded an anomalous 2.3% loss, but that can happen when trading volume is very light and some big money players push things around.


    Those numbers are meaningful and I think there is something to that being that trading volume tends to be down and that's generally because traders and larger institutions aren't as active, so the action is more likely driven by the automatic money inflows from pensions, 401Ks, etc., unless there is some major market event that changes that.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5286

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Maybe it's just me, volume seemed low today /s
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #5287

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    yeah, and barring any big news, it should get lighter all week.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #5288

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar is down, yields are down, and bitcoin is actually up for a change and this is helping the stock market and commodities rebound today.

    Trading volume should be light today and the only possible roadblock for a pre-holiday rally is the release of the FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow.

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #5289

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Always such a strange week with the half day Friday.

    S&P closed above psychological 4,000 and looks like it wants to get above that 61% fib retracement at 4,006. The case could be made for an inverse H&S that began in late August.

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  19. #5290

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's trying to get above that 200-day EMA, but struggling to hold on.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5291

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A lot of flat, mixed, but quiet action here. The dollar, yields, the S&P are fairly flat, while the Dow and small caps are having a strong day. The Nasdaq large tech stocks are lagging.

    It's been a good week for stocks so it's possible that we get some late profit taking before he closing bell.

    Reminder that the stock market closes at 1 PM ET today.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #5292

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I don't know if it was a post Thanksgiving weekend thing, which has a poor record, or a December 1st thing, but during the bear market of 2008, there was a big rally during Thanksgiving week, but a monster 8.9% sell-off on the Monday afterward, which happened to be December 1st. That close however, was actually the low close for that month of December before another January sell off.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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