Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Where is today's premium content? My coffee feels flat with no premium lol.

Hope everyone is doing ok.

Oops. It's posted. Sorry so late!

The dollar is pulling back from its double top so far this morning, and stock just went positive with small caps leading, but oil is at $93 / barrel and the 10-year yield is up slightly adding some pressure.

The bears have some momentum so we could see the early rally fade - unless the dollar stays sharply negative and goes after those open gaps below.

Stocks are trying to hold up despite the triple whammy this morning of a stronger dollar, higher yields, and higher oil prices.

The dollar has recovered yesterday's losses already and knocking on the double top again. The 10-year T-note is at 3.1%.



Oil (via the USO ETF) is trying to reclaim its 50-day EMA.

Well gas around me just went down to $3.47/gallon, where 2 weeks ago it jumped up 30 cents to $3.69/gallon in one day. With oil up it will be interesting to see how long it stays at $3.47.

The dollar is flat, yields are flat, and oil is down half a dollar so the bulls are taking advantage.

Some better than expected weekly jobless claims numbers and a smaller decline in Q2 GDP est. may be helping.

Trading volume should be light today in front of tomorrow's speech from Powell at Jackson Hole.

The action looks good on the charts but is it a buy the rumor, sell the news set up?

I wonder if Powell will take questions on the student loan forgiveness and it's impact on inflation?

Lots of movement around key areas on the charts. We still have an open gap near about 4215 on the S&P while the small caps chart has filled that gap today.

The S&P is also now retesting the 200-day EMA, which wasn't as big of a factor as the 200-day simple moving average as far as resistance goes.

This is either a buying opportunity to buy the turnaround of the recent pullback, or the fake out so they can pull the rug out from investors again.

You make the call.

The futures were lower most of the night but the PCE prices and personal income data came in lighter than expected and the futures shot up. However once the opening bell rang we saw the indices back in the modestly lower camp.

It will be a fast moving morning so, if you like to watch volatility and huge swings in the indices, you'll get your chance today. If you don't... don't watch.

It will be tough to base any decision on the first reaction. These kind of swings are good if you are trying to buy or sell something during the day at a specific price. Put your limit orders in and hope you get hit. For TSP decisions, that first hour will likely only confuse you.

S&P 500 Today...

Volatility is always great for filling in pesky open gaps. The dollar is now up after falling enough to fill last week's open gap.

The dollar is up, yields are up, oil is up... stocks down. It's the combo that is working for the bears.

The small caps have relinquished their 50-day EMA this morning, but of course its the close that matters most.

Transports as well.