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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5149

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's unusual to see a trend last this long in the VIX.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5150

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I feel like these last, almost 3 years, have been unusual. I was looking at your premium content this morning and comparing that VIX chart you had in there against the Smart Money below it. Is it me or do they look similar? I guess they probably would mirror each other more closely that I ever gave thought to. Maybe it's just me lol.

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  5. #5151

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yeah, that would make sense since the smart money is usually moving against the grain (getting more bearish the high the indices go, etc.), just as the VIX does.

    And the dumb money moves with the indices.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #5152

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,874
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    46

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    With rates as low as they were, there was massive investment in speculative ideas from whales like Softbank ($4B loss in Vision Fund) along with an unknown amount of Sovereign Wealth Funds, hedge funds and family offices (Shadow Economy). These were the guys moving that smart money needle. If any of these bets were hedged, like hedge funds used to operate, the trade was likely too large and crowded to even be offset. Sounds so cliche but higher rates popped the bubble.

    Don't forget about the individuals who plowed money that was created out of thin air into crypto, PTON, AMC, Gamestop, SNOW, TDOC, WING, ROKU, etc, who are now down enormously. Celsius network failing had a big part in this, but it also goes to show how ridiculous things got when you could make a 13% yield risk free when treasuries were yielding less than 1%.

    Not much of either investment was even real - in the end it was all money that didn't even exist. The idea of filling startups with cash or giving cash to companies that will soon be gone is not a long term strategy if the company cannot execute on that money. The business cycle worked and did what needs to happen in a capitalism based economy. In this case, I think it's safe to say that maybe one or two of those 50 high flying stocks will break even decades away, but everything else will go to zero or be acquired.

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  9. #5153

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks opened lower on Monday morning, but it didn't take long for the dip buyers to show up and push the S&P and Nasdaq into the green temporarily, but it's still choppy. Small caps are lagging and still down as of this post.

    Bonds and the dollar are up this morning as yields slipped lower with the 10-year Treasury trading back below 2.8%. Commodities like gold, silver and natural gas are down with the strength in the dollar.

    Oil is trading sharply lower with the September futures below $88 a barrel.

    China's economic data has been sluggish lately.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5154

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Chart of the day from today's Market Commentary:

    China has been in an economic slowdown and their July data has come up short of expectations. Their Central Bank jumped in yesterday and actually cut interest rates. I took a look at their Shanghai Index and noticed something interesting when compared to the S&P 500. The S&P has been lagging behind the Shanghai Index by about a month for the last year.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #5155

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    904

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Great commentary for today!

    That was a very good point about the moving averages. I tend to use my trading view charts the same way all of the time because I'm limited with the free version and I'm too lazy to change settings. Your example showed how worthwhile it is to experiment with the program.

    Thanks for the tip!!
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  15. #5156

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    How can the market mess up the most people today?

    It could complete fall apart today with a huge loss, forcing anyone, particularly TSP and other pensions with similar rules, to take the loss before they have a chance to get out at COB.

    It could fall early, get TSP'ers to sell today before the TSP deadline, and then head right back up without missing a beat on the upside.

    I don't know if either will happen, but this kind of stuff happens all the time. The market (aka Wall Street pros) tries to extricate you from your money ESPECIALLY on panic days, either up or down.

    Same with most crises. They happen. Wall Street makes money. The people usually lose money, and then they move on to the next one.

    OK, a little melodramatic for early on a Wednesday morning and a less than 1% loss in stocks, but that's how it works.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #5157

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Moving averages as resistance, and open gaps.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #5158

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Some selling to start Thursday's trading day, but not a lot o conviction from the bears yet. That could change, but if not, the bulls may push them aside and go back to buying.

    The 10-year yield is down (price up) and the 2/10 year yield curve remains inverted.

    Another push higher in the dollar has the metals flat, but crude oil is up slightly as it tries to hold onto recent lows.

    Jobless claims came in at 250,000 for last week, down 2,000 from the previous week and below the 260,000 estimates.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5159

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar is up again at the open, yields are up, oil is up (slightly). Today's commentary shows why this combination is a problem.

    Almost everything else is down to start the day.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #5160

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks are down sharply while bonds are slightly lower to start the day.

    The dollar is spiking up again so oil, the metals and HYG (and stocks) are down, as I talk about in today's commentary.

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsp...er-friday.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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