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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5029

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Today could be the high volume capitulation reversal day that I've been waiting to see. Unfortunately it's tough to tell until later in the afternoon.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5030

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    New lows for the S&P today but the VIX is almost yawning in comparison. It's up but well below the early May readings, and it's similar to the March action before that rally. I suppose there is time for panic to set in today.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5031

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The Transports have hit their downside target (approx 1000-points) below the H&S breakdown. It doesn't mean it can't go lower but technicians may cover shorts here, and we could see some bargain hunting for a short term bounce from here.




    This was talked about in Tuesday's commentary: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsp...ss-either.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  7. #5032

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Today could be the high volume capitulation reversal day that I've been waiting to see. Unfortunately it's tough to tell until later in the afternoon.
    It's tough to see on this 5-minute chart but there is an increase in volume today compared to Mon - Thu, and that could help get this closer to a low as it tends to be the "get me out at any price" people selling, and if there is any reversal in the final hours of trading, there would be a flush of buyers. Markets don't generally bottom on a Friday but it's not unheard of.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5033

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A nice bounce to start the new week, although small caps are lagging and down this morning. You can't always trust a Monday morning gap opening so we could see some back and forth before we know if this move is for real, or if the bears are pouncing on the opportunity to sell.




    The dollar is down sharply and that is helping the I-fund lead to start the day.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5034

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Ahhh, SNAP!! The selling seems more nerves than anything else. I don't know much, if anything about SNAP except that people use it to take pictures on their phone and send it to people. There's concern that their earnings warning is a sign that advertising dollars are being cut. I don't know how much this would concern me. This seems more like an excuse to retrace some of yesterday's gains.

    We are in a bear market so I suppose seeing bearish action isn't a surprise, but this seems like an overreaction unless we get a string of these kind of short falls in the social meeting advertising niche.

    The 10-year is down - I suppose on the economic concern from SNAP. The dollar is also starting the day on the downside.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #5035

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Last Thursday's low on the S&P may be a key level today: 3,877 - make or break for whether we see a test of Friday's lows (3,810).
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #5036

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Anyone else get the feeling that this isn't about SNAP? What else is brewing - besides all of the obvious.

    Bonds prices are up big and that breaks through more resistance. Why the flight to safety now?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #5037

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Powell speaking today. Will it make or break the market?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #5038

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Today's task for the bulls... get above resistance. Bears task, sell here. There's the battle today.

    The dollar is bouncing back a little this morning putting pressure on gold and silver.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5039

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Good action in the credit market this week, but there's still resistance to deal with.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #5040

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 20-day EMA is in the way right now, and could be a bear market rally killer, but once in a while that 50-day EMA will get tested and we get a more meaningful bounce.

    The PMO indicator is about to move back above its moving average. This tends to be a bullish sign, but the crossover itself can also be a short-term sign of being overbought. See Feb and early March crossovers below. It usually the 2nd attempt that is the make or break move.

    So, some good signs here for more of a rebound, but if this relief rally is going to run out of steam at all, this would be the place.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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