Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

The CPI report came in near expectation but the fact that it wasn't worse than last month is giving some hope that inflation could be peaking.

Stocks are up moderately to start the day, while bond yields are up slightly, and dollar is down.

I wonder if the TSP will offer an energy mutual fund next month? As Jim Cramer says, there's always a bull market somewhere and while stocks have been down all year, the energy sector continues to be in a bull market and perform well.

Stocks opened lower but have bounced back to more of a mixed picture with small caps leading the way higher.

Yields are down as the 10-year moved below its 20 day average for the first time in a while, and that's pushing BND and the F-fund above some major resistance (hmmm).. The dollar is making new highs again sending the metals gold, silver, etc.) down.




Bitcoin continues to be volatile trading in wide $4000 intraday ranges - mostly down lately.

I see both bitcoin and the stock index futures are up sharply tonight. I have mixed feelings about bitcoin moving in unison with the stock market these days. It used to be a rebel, and now it's just part of "the man."

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Not a lot of changes as far as yields or the dollar, but stocks are getting one of those bear market rallies. It's Friday and there is several hours of trading left so holding onto these gains is still going to be a challenge, but the indices were well overdue for something like this. The question is whether it's another 2 - 3 day rally or more like something we saw in March that lasted a couple of weeks?.

The futures were pointing higher when they opened on Sunday evening, but some weaker economic data out of China spoiled that, and now we see some digestion of last week's big rally that ended the week.

The S&P 500 had moved up 200 points or 5% from Thursday's low to Friday's high so some digestion may have been needed, but so far there's been no all out selling of those gains - at least not yet. The news out of China may have just put the breaks on the rally as investors interpret what that means for the U.S.

A gap up open this morning, and while the gaps are not totally apparent on the chart (I call them stealth gaps) we do have one above and below the current levels now on the S&P 500 - each of which can be a draw. The gaps are basically the space between one day's close and the next day's open that never got filled. More resistance just above 4100 id the S&P can get that high today, but tomorrow that resistance is lower as it remains in that descending channel (blue.)

Fed chair Powell talks later today and he may have be the catalysts to fill one of those gaps. (Stocks Rise Ahead of Powell Talk)

The lower "stealth" gap that I talked about in the prior post is trying to get filled this morning on the S&P 500 chart after some dismal retail numbers from Walmart and Target. The bottom of the gap needs to hold just above 4000.

Small caps are holding up a little better and the top of it "stealth" gap has been trying to hold so far.

Are the S&P and small caps (dwcpf) repeating a pattern? If so, the recent lows would need to hold.





The Transports aren't bouncing yet - new lows off the head and shoulders breakdown.

10 year Yield is trying to bounce back from this morning's breakdown from a bear flag...

We have a pretty significant decline in the dollar today helping commodity prices - oil, gold, silver, bitcoin - and even stocks have some cushion.

If you ask 3 economists whether they think there will be a recession in the next year you will probably get three different answers. For me, it's about prices action, chart set ups, and sentiment. There's a lot of extremes right now and the action has been poor. At some point this will turnaround and give us another relief rally and we'll say, why didn't we see that coming? Of course that rally could be another way to suck us in for the next rollover to another low, which is the nature of a bear market.

Be careful, but there will be opportunities here and there.