Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Wow...that is great to know. Wish Birchtree would start posting again.

Stocks are giving back some of those big morning gains as the Fed decision gets closer. The 200-day EMA is trying to hold after the pop above it earlier, but once the Fed announcement is made, support and resistance may be invisible for about an hour as day traders try to take each other's money.

The small caps chart is very broken but there's a lot of room to roam within that wide channel.

More strength in the dollar is holding back the I-fund some, but European markets were up big this morning.




The 10-year yield is flat and the dollar is up.

Stock futures were down very sharply overnight, but reversed before the opening bell and we had a strong open. We're seeing some selling of that rally as I write this, but the indices are basically trading within their recent wide trading ranges. A big rally in the dollar is putting pressure on commodities, and stocks in general, and particularly the I-fund.





Silver, gold and bitcoin are not participating in this morning's stock market rally because of the dollar.

The I-fund is also feeling the pressure despite green indices in Europe. Japan's Nikkei was down hard last night in sympathy with the sell off in U.S. stocks after the Fed yesterday.

The S-fund is flirting with a test of the lows. Being down 24% from its highs already, it really needs to hold. Or, at the most, a breakdown that goes after the stops below Monday's lows, then reversal.

Stocks are acting sluggish despite Apple's strong earnings release. Small caps are testing the lows right now and briefly made a lower low.




The yield on the 10-year is pulling for a 2nd day, but the chart remains in a bullish looking flag suggesting higher yields next month.



The dolar is down slightly but holding onto most of Thursday's big gains.

The S&P has closed below the 200-day EMA for three straight days. Currently 4366, a close above 4398 would be encouraging for the bulls. Once you get to 5 or more closes below the average, the bears may start to get more emboldened.




Although any close above 4328 keeps the weekly chart happy.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The S&P has closed below the 200-day EMA for three straight days. Currently 4366, a close above 4398 would be encouraging for the bulls. Once you get to 5 or more closes below the average, the bears may start to get more emboldened.

Boom! 4432

We hadn't seen a big gain on a Friday since December 10.

It took a few minutes but the follow through to Friday's reversal is kicking in. This was overdue but the jury is still out on whether this is forming a bottom. This could easily be just a relief rally and as always, there are good arguments why each side of that argument could be right. Keep an open mind that either could happen. Unfortunately, because of our limited IFT structure, being wrong can be costly since we can't simply bounce back and forth as much as we want.

The 10-year yield and the dollar are down to start the day. What is keeping the dollar up in this environment?

The rebound in stocks has run into some stalling this morning, but the S&P is already 7% above last week's lows. can the rally continue or does it need a break?




Yields are up after a weak open, and the dollar seems to be breaking down after the failed, Fed fueled, breakout last week.

A good open for stocks after some strong earnings out of Google, but outside of tech we are seeing some weakness and failures at some moving averages in the charts.




The dollar is down again and this morning it fell below its 50-day EMA.



The yield on the 10-year is also down after some much weaker than expected employment data.

08:15 ET: ADP Employment Change
For: Jan
Actual: -301K
B.com Forecast: 125K
B.com Cons: 220K
Prior: 776K
Revised From: 807K

All together, it looks like the beginnings of lower highs in stocks, but yields can't go much higher without causing bigger problems.

How much longer can everyone keep blaming Omicron? Even PayPal tried to use it as an excuse for poor earnings, but investors aren't having it. (-25% for the day)