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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4837

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The financials are kicking butt today. XLF / UGY
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4838

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar is getting hit this morning (filling in a small open gap), and yields have pulled back a bit as bonds are due for at least a little relief rally off the double bottom.




    The small caps index is trying to hold onto that 200 day average as support, with an open gap waiting in the wings if it breaks...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #4839

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The I-fund is taking a lead in 2022, but resistance is close at hand.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #4840

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Fed Minutes push yields up to a new high after morning pullback.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #4841

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    81

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Market response is
    D
    O
    W
    N

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  11. #4842

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    81

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Well time to close that gap on $DWCPF and stable a base at 2075?


  12.  
  13. #4843

    Join Date
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    Location
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The dollar is getting hit this morning (filling in a small open gap), and yields have pulled back a bit as bonds are due for at least a little relief rally off the double bottom.




    The small caps index is trying to hold onto that 200 day average as support, with an open gap waiting in the wings if it breaks...

    Well time to close that gap on $DWCPF and stable a base at 2075?

  14.  
  15. #4844

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are moving higher again, but stocks got a little oversold in the short term. We could see some relief rallies but I doubt the pullback is over -- or at least we'll see some chopping near the recent lows as opposed to a "V" bottom.




    The 50-day EMA was taken out in each of the prior pullbacks, and it hasn't happened yet.



    Small caps may be trying to carve out a low here, but that could also be a big bear flag, and if that breaks down, the downside target would be... UGLY.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #4845

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  18.  
  19. #4846

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Is this a good or bad sign

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  21. #4847

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by joblin20 View Post
    Is this a good or bad sign
    This was from one of my market commentaries from late December.

    This is not a prediction, but one year that stands out as having a similar look to this current situation may be December of 1999. Someone in our forum pointed this out (exnavyew) the other day and it got my attention. It was an article on Yahoo.com that said...

    "Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group." Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/

    So, I looked at this year's chart of the S&P 500, and compared it to 1999's chart to see if there were similarities, and there were, so what happened next in 1999 - 2000?

    There was a rally in the early part of the month of December 1999, followed by a mid-month swoon that took away most of those early gains, then a rally into the end of the year. I noticed a PMO indicator crossover on about the 23rd as it headed into the end of the month.


    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  22.  
  23. #4848

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    "Even though the Nasdaq Composite rose 85.6% and the S&P 500 rose 19.5% in 1999, more stocks fell in value than rose in value as investors sold stocks in slower growing companies to invest in Internet stocks."

    The NASDAQ would peak on March 10th 2000, and not fully bottom out until 2.5 years later in October 2002.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble


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