Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Hi Tom, I was noticing the light volume as well. Thursday has quite a few metrics coming out, so I will be most curious to see how Monday turns out... And of course, January 3 when many traders come back.

The S&P is on track for a new record high if these early gains can hold. What a difference a few days can make.




The 10-year chart is intriguing. My guess it is churning out some kind of double bottom with the open gap an eventual target, but that bearish looking flag may be trying to say something else.

The S&P is on track for a new record high if these early gains can hold. What a difference a few days can make.




The 10-year chart is intriguing. My guess it is churning out some kind of double bottom with the open gap an eventual target, but that bearish looking flag may be trying to say something else.

The early action has large caps popping higher, while small caps are flat (S fund) to down (Russell 2000). There are actually a lot of small caps stocks that did not do well in 2021 and that may be triggering some tax selling, but also window dressing as many managers get rid of the losers and add winners to pretty up their annual reports.

The 10-year yield is down slightly, and the dollar is up a bit.

FOMO may still be triggering buying from those who got spooked out with the mid-December selling and are trying to get back in with the mini-melt up we've seen over the last week.

Omicron and the weather are putting pressure on travel related stocks, as well as the price of oil. I see omicron as a good thing at this point since symptoms are minimal, yet the fast spreading is helping to get us closer to herd immunity. So, hopefully it's just a temporary road block.

Keeping an eye on the inflationary data may be key as they continue to debate the whether it will be short-lived or get worse.

Kind of a sluggish day with some resistance on the charts stalling the rally, but the bulls are mostly hanging tough despite an obvious profit taking / sell the rally scenarios, especially for 2021 losing positions.

The 10-year treasury yield is down again, and the dollar is up.

Small caps look particularly vulnerable as they stall at the moving averages. A close above those lines would be big, but maybe we have a Turnaround Tuesday brewing?

Another quiet pre-holiday kind of day which, absent of any major headlines, tend to favor the bulls.

The 10-year yield is digesting yesterday pop higher. Interesting chart to be sure. There's an open gap above and below the current level, and this could all be inside of a big bear flag. Why yields would go lower, I don't know, but they have remained stubbornly low for some time despite the mounting evidence of stronger economic conditions.




The dollar refuses to tumble but it does seem to be wobbling as support has been giving way. Can the threat of rising interest rates from the Fed keep this from falling under the weight of years of stimulus that created the inflation we are seeing now?




The small caps are leading to the upside today after a couple of days of lagging. You would think that this group has the most to gain because it has fallen the most from its highs, but perhaps there is a reason for that. The technical picture looks worse, but a break above the tremendous amount of resistance, both short and long term, could get some interest. But even a breakout today, on a very light volume trading day, may not be trusted.

Stocks are off to a positive start, but it's a long day so we'll see if that can hold.

The 10-year Treasury yield is finally making a move to fill the open gap near 1.65% ...





The dollar is up but could stiffen as it is hitting resistance...




This chart is a little concerning as the credit market isn't playing along with the rally in stocks. Could be a red flag if it doesn't turn around.

Early action has the EFA (I-fund) leading the way with an impressive move above resistance. Meanwhile the S&P (C-fund) is up modestly but off its highs and trying to hold onto a breakout. Small caps ()DWCPF / S-fund) flipped over from an early gain to post heavier losses and remain above that confluence of resistance, but that bull flag still seem to be intact.




Yields are up again (bonds / F-fund down) and the speed at which this rises could become a factor for stocks.



The dollar is flat and also fighting some resistance.

A little curious why the I-fund received a loss yesterday. EFA was up.

Check out the "fair value" threads:

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/the-i-fund/

Originally Posted by TommyIV

A little curious why the I-fund received a loss yesterday. EFA was up.

The close is very important today. Will it be a false breakout like in November and December - or an actual breakout?