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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4525

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk




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  3. #4526

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    most certainly not a double headed coin!

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  5. #4527

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Whatever the Fed said, flipped this over and it is now down on the day.
    Basically the same. No inflation. Zero rates and free money til the end. In spite of record stock highs and explosive growth. Fed has your back.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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  7. #4528

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Anyone have a chart of the daily May seasonality or know where to find one? Curious what the "Sell in May" idea looks like on the first few days.

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  9. #4529

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk


    Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4530

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I find it interesting, that no matter how much concern there is about inflation - and the Fed said he sees growth and inflation out there - that bond yields always seem to close off their intraday highs, and opening price. That's evident with the black candlesticks below. Growth and inflation = higher yields, so who keeps pushing yields lower during the day after early spikes, when they should be moving higher based on the data?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #4531

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Deflationary pressures is my guess. I'm skeptical the US will be able to hit and stay above those inflation goals of 2% especially since everyone is talking about it now. It's easy to say runaway inflation with gas prices, but we're back to where we should be with gas prices. Supply chain disruption will only be a temporary thing and that's leading to most of the inflationary pockets we see today.

    The lumber and housing inflation is due to cut lumber plant shutdowns and a near complete halt in home building/homes for sale due to pandemic. Those pressures are slowly easing.

    40% of the most recent stimulus was stashed in savings, so that money isn't out there chasing goods.

    As of Feb 2021, most everyone was a seller of US debt except for UK. The numbers were still net higher than December 2020. Unfortunately there is a big delay in this reporting.

    https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

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  15. #4532

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Good explanation, B. More of the same for yields today, although the dollar is rolling over today.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #4533

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 20-day EMA is getting tested so far this morning. It's got to hold or we can probably expect the 50-day EMA to get tested next.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #4534

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    As weatherweenie reported, Yellen was talking this morning about potentially having to raise rates to keep the economy from overheating. Yields are coming off their lows, after support was tested again and trying to hold. It looks bear "flaggy", but I can't see them breaking down... why would they?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #4535

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The Nasdaq 100 is trying to hold at some rising support, but it still has all of those open gaps below that need filling. Interesting test here at today's lows.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #4536

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The S-fund (DWCPF) fell through one rising support line on Tuesday and is again testing the 50-day EMA. Below that is the Russell 2000, and if you read my commentary you know I've called it a "mothman" formation. You can see some important support levels being tested now, including the 50-day EMA which can easily hold, but if it doesn't, I marked potential downside targets if it fails.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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