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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4465

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 10-year yield is down again today. HYG (credit market), which was up big yesterday, is flat to slightly lower, and the VIX is basically flat, so it looks like a typical digestion of yesterday's gains so far. If we start to see 50% of yesterday's return given back, that would change things.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4466

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The transports don't seem overly concerned about the rest of the market volatility. If it holds, it would be a new all time closing high. But that 13,700 level is getting tough.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #4467

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    What a difference a day makes. We have some chinks in the armor this morning in the Transports' chart:

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #4468

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    David Tepper is getting bullish on stocks, believes rising rates are set to stabilize

    Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, said it’s very difficult to be bearish on stocks right now.

    He thinks the sell-off in Treasurys that has driven rates higher is likely over.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/davi...stabilize.html

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #4469

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The action looks good as some indices recapture more moving averages. Morgan Stanley however apparently says there more to go - at least in the Nasdaq saying it "should test" the 200-day average??

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #4470

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Transports rollin' higher.

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  13. #4471

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Nearly a failed breakout, however...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #4472

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    S-fund index gapped up this morning, but is trying to fill that gap already. That's fine, but a close above the 20-day EMA and that descending resistance line would be most bullish.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #4473

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The GAP being filled today would be nice for the next leg up.


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  19. #4474

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Would the S-Fund making it back to the last month's high be considered a double top?
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  21. #4475

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Remember back when I fund was all the rage? People would figure out it's fair value on a daily basis and it was where everyone wanted to be. Nowadays S fund gets all the likes.

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  23. #4476

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Would the S-Fund making it back to the last month's high be considered a double top?
    Sorry for the late response, WS. For a short-term dip, maybe, but the prior peaks were so recent that it's not really considered a top here. Could the S&P dip back a few because of the DT? Sure, but you can see prior breakouts might last a day or two before it occurs.

    Double tops are more effective when reaching a level not hit in months or even years (see oil chart at bottom). So for the S-fund, it may depend on how long it takes to get back to that 2250 area.




    Better example of Double top

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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