The transports don't seem overly concerned about the rest of the market volatility. If it holds, it would be a new all time closing high. But that 13,700 level is getting tough.
The 10-year yield is down again today. HYG (credit market), which was up big yesterday, is flat to slightly lower, and the VIX is basically flat, so it looks like a typical digestion of yesterday's gains so far. If we start to see 50% of yesterday's return given back, that would change things.
Tom
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The transports don't seem overly concerned about the rest of the market volatility. If it holds, it would be a new all time closing high. But that 13,700 level is getting tough.
Tom
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What a difference a day makes. We have some chinks in the armor this morning in the Transports' chart:
Tom
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David Tepper is getting bullish on stocks, believes rising rates are set to stabilize
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/davi...stabilize.htmlTepper, founder of Appaloosa Management, said it’s very difficult to be bearish on stocks right now.
He thinks the sell-off in Treasurys that has driven rates higher is likely over.
Tom
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The action looks good as some indices recapture more moving averages. Morgan Stanley however apparently says there more to go - at least in the Nasdaq saying it "should test" the 200-day average??
Tom
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Nearly a failed breakout, however...
Tom
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S-fund index gapped up this morning, but is trying to fill that gap already. That's fine, but a close above the 20-day EMA and that descending resistance line would be most bullish.
Tom
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The GAP being filled today would be nice for the next leg up.
Would the S-Fund making it back to the last month's high be considered a double top?
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
Remember back when I fund was all the rage? People would figure out it's fair value on a daily basis and it was where everyone wanted to be. Nowadays S fund gets all the likes.
Sorry for the late response, WS. For a short-term dip, maybe, but the prior peaks were so recent that it's not really considered a top here. Could the S&P dip back a few because of the DT? Sure, but you can see prior breakouts might last a day or two before it occurs.
Double tops are more effective when reaching a level not hit in months or even years (see oil chart at bottom). So for the S-fund, it may depend on how long it takes to get back to that 2250 area.
Better example of Double top
Tom
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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