Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Apple beats.

Google beats.

New AAII survey.

20% bullish. 49% bearish.

Wow.

Bulls just keep drying up. In late May - early June there were 33-34% bulls.

Sentimentrader seems to think these numbers are very negative, but we are in a bull market and buy signals aren't what we're looking for. Wall of worry.

The dollar, bitcoin, gold, and silver all up today. Interesting. I thought the metals were feeding off of the weak dollar.

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Bulls just keep drying up. In late May - early June there were 33-34% bulls.

Sentimentrader seems to think these numbers are very negative, but we are in a bull market and buy signals aren't what we're looking for. Wall of worry.

Hmm.. Where are you seeing that - that ST is negative based on AAII's low bullish percentage?

I'm not sure if this is part if the pay portion of his site...

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...eing-left-out/

The Backtest Engine shows that the S&P 500 has rallied 93% of the time over the next three months when fewer than 20.5% of respondents considered themselves bullish on the market.

The most recent time this happened was 2102 and it turned out to be bearish, but the prior 9 times showed positive returns 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 months out.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Where are you seeing that - that ST is negative based on AAII's low bullish percentage?

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https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/s...56985841131520

His twitter information is often data mined clickbait. I should have checked his site before posting that, because he gave a different explanation on the site. Looks like you and I both posted that.

Investor Fear Chart

Dannyboy has sent 2 emails, previously. Dannyboy IFT is set at G1C59S40 since 7-31-20. I had changed to G100 on Saturday,7- 25, but I canned that on 10:00am on Monday 7-27. I am glad I did but I am not able to get back to you. I know that you can’t change your what has been but it has to would be good if I can start August out correct and that is
Dannyboy is set at G1C9S40 on 8-1-20. I do hop that this can be done? During this pandemic I do have lots of free time, so I put focus on the thing I
can?

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Looks like you and I both posted that.

Oops. Sorry I missed that post.

Overhead gap filled on 10-year yield, and right back down...

A couple of red flags today, despite the strong performance in stocks: The High Yield Bonds are down, and the VIX is up after a big reversal this morning. There's still a couple of hours to change that, but just a midday observation.

There goes the dollar again....




Yields are popping higher, but so far only enough to fill an open gap.