Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

A couple of charts that I follow suggest interesting pivot points.

Amazon has a great looking bull flag forming, except when you see what t did last time in this situation...




Gold (ultra) is also in a bull flag, filled some open gaps recently. The last one broke to the upside. There is still another open gap near 56 and could be the downside if this falls to the bottom of the flag again.

Not a prediction, just an observation. And we know once we recognize a pattern, it's usually over. But the first trading day of the last few months have been curve balls for the month. Whatever it did, the market ended the month in the opposite direction.

Both the S&P (C-fund) and the DWCPF (S-fund) fell through the 50-day EMA's then ran back up to test it.

One gap filled this morning, another opened.

They're going after Tuesday's open gap (red) today...

NDX heading for the corona crash gap. If this was a gold chart, everyone would be talking about that inverse H&S.

ndx.JPG

Goldman Sachs chief US equity strategist David Kostin says downside risk is greater than upside risk

“Basically, all of the good and optimistic outlook is basically priced into the market today,” said Kostin. “So where the market’s trading now, I would say the asymmetry of upside [is] perhaps 2%, the downside maybe 15%.”

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/gold...side-risk.html

The squeeze is on between the 200 day EMA, and the 20/50 days...

Another small gap filled (red). It's surprising to see so many gaps on the S&P 500 chart (all filled on this one month chart.)




There are still a few large opens gap on the chart - 1 above, 2 below that should eventually get filled. Days, weeks, months, years? Not sure, but eventually.

As mentioned in today's commentary, it's not unusual to see a big rebound days on the way down -- if today's rally even holds. The question is, is that what we're seeing today, or just another "buy the two-day dip?"

Small caps are outperforming nicely today, but the charts (Russell and dwcpf) still look troublesome.