Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Sounds about right.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Sounds about right.

this will snowball big time. Aside from the obvious negative impact on GDP, on the speculative side -- trade wars and other commodity price wars, plus gov't bailouts to keep the US shale businesses stable.

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

Thoughts on this oil price war? I think regardless of who precipitated this (Russia, Saudis, or both), it's not to really to undercut one another ultimately. It's to deliver a huge blow to the US shale market. As shale is more expensive to produce than traditional oil, shale prices can't compete with that 20% cut. This will no doubt crush those US companies involved in shale production.

Someone said on the news the Saudis and Russia had a meeting this weekend and it didn't go well. Saudis then decided to cut their price lower to put pressure on Russia.

Originally Posted by fedgolfer

Thoughts on this oil price war? I think regardless of who precipitated this (Russia, Saudis, or both), it's not to really to undercut one another ultimately. It's to deliver a huge blow to the US shale market. As shale is more expensive to produce than traditional oil, shale prices can't compete with that 20% cut. This will no doubt crush those US companies involved in shale production.

If I were in the CIA and I were to wager, I'd put money on the Russian oligarchs. They clearly have an incentive to blow the US (and Canadian) Shale Oil companies up into bankrupt little piles of rubbish. That way, they can drop the price of oil for a short period, blow all these western companies away, and then, when shale oil is no longer being produced, can suddenly jack the price back up and make a killing.

luke.jpg

Originally Posted by James48843

If I were in the CIA and I were to wager, I'd put money on the Russian oligarchs. They clearly have an incentive to blow the US (and Canadian) Shale Oil companies up into bankrupt little piles of rubbish. That way, they can drop the price of oil for a short period, blow all these western companies away, and then, when shale oil is no longer being produced, can suddenly jack the price back up and make a killing.

luke.jpg

Yup. Wouldn't be surprised to see an 25% tariff on all Saudi and Russian oil... or at least hear rumblings of it. US shale companies need to hold on for 6 months or more while they don't move supply.

Airlines cutting flights.
Delta announced 20-25% internationally and 10-15% domestically

https://www.barrons.com/articles/del...ty-51583845647

It's interesting that bond yields are rallying (F fund falling) yet the stock is not holding up. Interesting in a concerning way...

Originally Posted by tsptalk

It's interesting that bond yields are rallying (F fund falling) yet the stock is not holding up. Interesting in a concerning way...

AGREE ... my concern too. WAZZUP With THAT? TSP I'm 26% F & the rest in G, and some Bond and Precious Metal ETFs on the side... pretty much taking some pounding in those the last couple days even when there are big drops in equity funds. Somebody gotta be putting their money somewhere (the banks?). Hmmmmm.....

Hummm… maybe they're putting it under their mattress!!!

Yikes...Selling is continuing to accelerate and the 50 day will soon be crossing down under the 200 day.

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It’s really getting ugly.

Stocks - Dow futures as of 11:00 pm- down over -4.3%.


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