Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Wow...Your SARS chart got me thinking....so I just scratched out a 50 and a 200 EMA overlay on a 6 month SPX Chart. Threw in ^DJT as a potential future-cast. If that chart I just sketched is right, there is one really ugly bear still waiting to eat any bull that comes out. Have to trade nimble on anything that presents because I don't think there are any long bounces to be made until we find support. Tomorrows action will really be informative.
Last edited by Mcqlives; 02-27-2020 at 07:46 PM. Reason: added
I would also throw out that back when SARS was all rage- that drop leading into March 20, 2003 was actually the Invasion of Iraq. The war started on March 20, and that is why the bottom is seen that day on the stock chart, NOT necessarily SARS.
Although SARS was in the news then, it paled compared to news about the war. What we are seeing today with COVID-19 should not be compared directly with 2003- because SARS wasn’t that big of a deal then, the war was.
I also think we got far less news via internet in 2003 than we do today. We have much more rapid information flow going today. That might make for faster market swings.
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We may see some short term snap back rallies, but with noon IFTs it may be difficult to lock those quick gains in with the VIX moving all the needles so quickly. Personally, I would only dabble in the oversold bounces in a nimble trading account. For TSP we're at least going to the the long term support line at some point in the near future. This is a golden & death cross long term chart. We're not even on the oversold slow stochastics. I'd only consider buying stock once we hit that support line, and if the slow stochastics are sub-20 and the VIX has a 60 handle on it... that's buying fear.
Take the emotion out, we've been a bloated pig for a while now.
S&P Golden & Death Cross with longterm support.jpg
If you're in, stay in. Keep buying ever-more worthless shares in ever-greater amounts to maintain your percentages, you're getting a bargain. Then when it reverses you'll climb out faster than you went down. This is what saved me in the Great Recession, got run over but kept buying, had no choice really. I retired as planned 1/1/11. Note I had 18 months to recoup, you'll need all of that and maybe more in this case.
Monthly charts and Monday starts a new bar for March.
Second chart is a logarithmic scale.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
I concur!!! I believe this corona crap is going to blow over in two weeks. I also believe the market is going to come back with a vengeance....and when it does,,i'll be there! I have 10 years to recover. Amen.
ps. I am split between C & S, 50/50, same with allocations. My TSP bal. goes up about $30k/year. Just sayin...
Gap fill!
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