Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

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Copper is not having a good day, and from what you teach us Tom, that makes me nervous that this rally will be very short-lived. HYG is flat now after a healthy morning rally. We shall see.

Small caps are sure struggling since hitting the 20 and 200-day averages...

The Mexican tariff announcement sent the S&P up to the 50-day EMA... But can it close above it?

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/06/stoc...t-to-slow.html

The jobs report came in light - more than 100K below estimates. The unemployment rate was 3.6% - slightly better than expected, and wages grew at 0.02%, a tick lower than expected.

The market's knee-jerk reaction in the futures at 8:30 AM ET was to rally. That's what we thought could happen because it puts pressure on the Fed to consider cutting rates sooner than later. We also said that this bad news is good news rally could be sold quickly.

Friday's commentary: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsp...iff-talks.html

The AGG (F-fund) did break above that bull flag that we talked about in today's commentary. The new low in yields while stocks rally tells us this is all about the Fed potentially cutting because of weak economic data.




Just like stocks plummeting late last year when the Fed was raising rates because the economy was running hot, the market seems to be all about the Fed and not the economy.

This is quite the trajectory. Sustainable?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

This is quite the trajectory. Sustainable?

Probably not. But it could go sideways for a few days, then continue up. Or not. Oh the many choices.

Also seems like it has gone back to the "bad news is good" and vice versa.... Like you said, its about the Fed .......and rate hikes or cuts...

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The AGG (F-fund) did break above that bull flag that we talked about in today's commentary. The new low in yields while stocks rally tells us this is all about the Fed potentially cutting because of weak economic data.




Just like stocks plummeting late last year when the Fed was raising rates because the economy was running hot, the market seems to be all about the Fed and not the economy.

The market seems to have already priced in 3 rate cuts in 2019, and a fourth going out 12 months. Talk about a sell the news set up.

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Also seems like it has gone back to the "bad news is good" and vice versa.... Like you said, its about the Fed .......and rate hikes or cuts...

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The market seems to have already priced in 3 rate cuts in 2019, and a fourth going out 12 months. Talk about a sell the news set up.

Tom has any gaps been created during this run up?

Not really, although a day like today does create a sort of gap between yesterday's close and today's low. But no obvious gap that we can see on the chart.